Many Conservatives Pick For PM Is Still Boris Johnson

A Johnson Conundrum Awaits The Next Prime Minister.

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Boris Looms Large Over Leadership Contenders

I was slightly surprised to see none of the candidates for PM put their hands up when asked if they would want Boris Johnson in their Cabinet at last night’s ITV debate.

Recently it was revealed that a majority of Conservative voters would be in favour of him serving in the Cabinet after stepping down as PM.

Despite a hit to Johnson’s support after a combination of self-inflicted mistakes, ferocious mainstream media attacks and Tory infighting, there is no doubt that Boris is still capable of being an electoral asset for the Conservatives.

Don’t forget that as recently as late June, Labour’s lead over a mid-term Johnson government was still just a few points. That lead has since quadrupled following the leadership row and subsequent resignation.

There has been all sorts of speculation surrounding what Boris Johnson was going to do next. I was convinced he was going to call a snap ‘back me or sack me’ General Election. Whilst it may have seen a Labour-LibDem-SNP Coalition as the end result, people forget how effective a campaigner Boris Johnson is.

He could have easily regained the momentum during a campaign where he insisted on the British people making a clear choice: giving him a fresh mandate to kneecap the rebels in his own party or risk electing a Remainer Alliance with a blatant Rejoin EU agenda. We will never know what the outcome would have been.

Instead we’ve had all sorts of rumours: even that Johnson would resign then run in the leadership contest himself. Some Conservatives have argued that he should be included on the ballot for members to vote for at the end of this race.

There has also been wild speculation about Boris Johnson starting a new political party.

Lord Cruddas, Conservative Peer and a heavyweight donor, has said that he “would be happy to fund any campaign that would help Boris return as PM”.

It is expected that Boris will remain on the backbenches as an MP at least until the next election. He will loom large as the next Leader comes in in a way that I don’t think Theresa May has.

That’s because Conservative voters are much more positive about Boris than they were about Theresa May by the time she finally resigned.

As you can see below, only 19% of Conservative voters thought Theresa May was wrong to resign, compared to a whopping 71% who supported her resignation.

In contrast, YouGov’s polling for The Times today finds that whilst a majority of Conservatives members (58%) think it was right for BoJo to go, a significant minority (38%) regard it as wrong.

And 36% of Conservative members still think that Boris as Leader would have been better for the party’s prospects at the next election. In contrast I can’t imagine many (any?) Tories fancied another election led by Theresa May after the Conservative Party’s horrific 2019 European Election result that saw the party dip below 9% of the vote.

Labour seem to be chuffed that Boris Johnson has been ousted without the public having a say. Someone familiar with Keir Starmer’s thinking told The Times: “He always felt that with Boris in place, Labour would end up losing.”

What the next Prime Minister does when it comes to their relationship with the man who many Conservatives wanted to stay in Downing Street will be fascinating. Perhaps the next PM comes in with huge momentum, performs well and Boris leaves frontline politics forever.

But if they falter and fail, I think you’ll see many Conservatives talking about a dramatic Boris Johnson return. Indeed, some already are.

Boris could become the next PM’s ally, adversary or an influential outsider. Those Conservatives still loyal to him will be watching closely.