Here We Go
The last verdict from voters before the General Election is almost here. And the stakes are high.
Having gone from that stonking Boris Johnson majority to a perpetual identity crisis, the Rishi Sunak-led Tories have seen their popularity fall to the lowest level since comparable records began in the 1970s.
On Friday, after the local and regional elections I will of course break it all down for you in this newsletter - so please ensure you are subscribed and consider upgrading to become a paid supporter.
On Thursday the Conservatives will be defending 985 Council seats, and the party could be facing a calamity.
Remember that a good night for them is now being viewed as holding on to the Tees Valley Mayoralty, where Ben Houchen received close to 73% of the vote last time round. So expectations aren’t exactly high.
YouGov currently have Houchen holding on 51-44 against Labour, with Tory Mayor Andy Street just 2 points ahead in the West Midlands where Reform UK are third.
In London, Sadiq Khan’s lead has fallen slightly but he still is ahead of Conservative Susan Hall by 10 points according to Savanta.
One key element that will make this set of elections different from the General Election is that Reform are only standing a full slate of local candidates in certain areas this time round, including Hartlepool and Bolton.
A key test for Reform therefore will be how they perform in the Blackpool South Westminster by-election and if they manage to win a seat on the London Assembly where there is an element of proportional representation.
Most Conservative MPs have been consistent under Rishi Sunak’s leadership in refusing to contemplate ousting him, even as the Tories have fallen further than ever before.
There is some vague chatter of a rebel plot, a 100-day reset with new pledges on cutting immigration and increasing defence spending further.
The problem is that sensible Conservative voices like Robert Jenrick are no longer in Government, but the backbenches. This is his view on migration policy:
“It’s time to end the disastrous 25 year experiment with mass migration.
“We must return to the historical norm of net migration in the 10,000s.
“And only the democratic lock of a cap will consign broken immigration promises to history.”
But the Tory Government is nowhere near that agenda and will voters even now believe such a manifesto pledge from the party?
It seems highly unlikely, with some polls now registering Reform as the most popular party with Leavers overall.
Absolutely bonkers to see Ireland now demanding that the UK take back illegal migrants when the French have refused to help us.
That despite an absurd £500m deal our PM agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron that has since seen crossings increase rather than decrease.
We now hear the Irish authorities are set to deploy 100 police officers to frontline ‘prevention and deportation’ duties. Hard border EU u-turn then?
As TUV Leader Jim Allister recently put it:
“You reap what you sow! ROI insisted there wouldn’t even be a camera allowed on the international frontier and now they lament the consequences of the open border they demanded.
“It’s hard to find sympathy for those so driven by their all-Ireland agenda and poking the British over Brexit that they insisted on the very thing now swamping them with immigrants!”
You really couldn’t make it up!
There will be much pre-election glee from the Government that a single, token deportation to Rwanda has now taken place.
This was on a voluntary basis and the individual in question was reportedly given around £3,000.
I’m sure the Government will be happy with the headlines about their Rwanda plan starting.
But just consider this: over the past week a further 1,000+ people have crossed from France to England on small boats.
This dangerous crisis continues, with British taxpayers picking up the mammoth bill.
Many thanks for the comments from paid subscribers of this newsletter. Hilary is one of those not happy with the Government’s approach on illegal immigration:
“And meanwhile another 402 flood into the country with the last lot and the lot before that…you know the drill, they come, we complain, the Government and the glorious opposition do sweet FA about it!”
Meanwhile Mrs. Bucket still isn’t impressed by Reform even after I highlighted the party was level-pegging with the Tories in a major poll:
“This is a fantasy, Reform in its present muddle can't even win a by-election.”
And finally Mikemac commented that:
“It's quite obvious Sunak will not stop the boats…Do not vote Conservative or Labour, but vote REFORM UK.”
How many now agree that that sentiment? We will find out, to some degree, this week.
The Problem is that We do not have a Govt with a Backbone, Labour are no better so I'm Voting for Reform.
We need to put some of the elitist desire for mass immigration in context.
1. The left wants to import voters, Blair wanted to rub the rights nose in open borders
2. Global companies want cheap labour
3. Global companies can skimp on investing in and training their work forces
4. We are suffering from a demographic trough - we have not been having enough babies since 1971 to sustain the indigenous population.
5. Our current economic system relies on a larger generation of workers compared to retired people - with Baby boomers retiring this model is destroyed.
Its not enough to control our borders (which is vital), we also need some fundamental changes such as:
1. Incentives to have children (and make owning houses affordable). Aim to have a sustainable population.
2. Proper training and apprenticeships, ditching woke degrees in useless subjects and more incentives to increase STEM skills and knowledge. We need to completely overhaul education and balance academics and vocational. This also means re-industrialising as China declines (with its own demographic catastrophe and financial mess). Globalism is dying.
3. reverse the stupidity of tax grabs from both Labour (Brown) and Tory (Osborne) that have utterly devalued pensions in the UK