Reform Joint Second With Tories
For the first time.
So it’s finally happened, perhaps inevitably.
With the Conservatives hitting record low levels of support under Rishi Sunak combined with new highs for Richard Tice’s Reform UK, both parties have been recorded as having the same level of support for the first time.
It isn’t a huge surprise given the Government are still nowhere near stopping the boats.
Indeed just this Tuesday a further 402 people crossed from France to England on small boats whilst the Government keeps talking with zero action implemented.
Indeed former Home Secretary Suella Braverman has been emphasising just how dire the situation now is:
“We’ve passed three Acts of Parliament but we’ve still not stopped the boats.
“The main obstacle is the ECHR & the Strasbourg Court.
“We need to leave the ECHR. Not a manifesto commitment or a referendum. That’s more delay.
“We need to leave now.”
This should have been done years ago instead of focusing on a weak Rwanda Bill. Yes I will keep banging on about leaving the ECHR. It is critical to actually stop this illegal immigration disaster.
And so Redfield and Wilton have recorded the Tories and Reform now joint second in Wales, both on 18% with Labour leading on 40%.
As the polling firm themselves explain:
“At 40%, Labour falls to its lowest share of the vote share in our Welsh polling.
“Conversely, with 18% in our poll, Reform UK achieves its highest share of the vote in our Welsh polling and is now tied with the Conservatives in second place in Wales.”
Given the Welsh Parliament uses a degree of proportional representation and could potentially be expanding from 60 to 93 members, Reform are on course to win seats. Yes, I still think there should be an English Parliament as well!
But this landmark moment of Reform and the Tories drawing level in a major poll is a pretty big deal.
If Reform can continue that trajectory and overtake the Conservatives then expect Tory MPs to finally move against Rishi Sunak.
The Tories will still be hoping to squeeze the Reform vote - and there is some evidence of this happening in one electoral contest at least.
Redfield’s latest West Midlands Mayoral poll shows Reform dropping from 13% to 4%. That’s a pretty wild swing given both polls were conducted this month.
However, both have Tory Mayor Andy Street losing his re-election bid. If that happens, along with Ben Houchen in Tees Valley being ousted, Conservative MPs could finally lose patience with Sunak in May.
Ultimately the Conservative Government are still delivering high taxes, high immigration and weak borders. Until that changes it’s hard to see anything other than an electoral wipeout for them.
And meanwhile another 402 flood into the country with the last lot and the lot before that… you know the drill, they come, we complain, the government and the glorious opposition do sweet FA about it! I have a lot of time for Ben Habib and feel that he would be a better leader for Reform, and I will vote for them to see if…? But, I fear Mrs Bucket is right in reiterating his point about the glaring inadequacies in Reform’s campaign strategies, and as yet unknown, somewhat dubious candidates, in some cases. And, at the moment that ‘lack of something’ that Reform seen to be suffering from matters enormously as there’s no time left to fine tune and folk are fed up with waiting for a saviour to deliver us from the grips of a couldn’t careless government and government in waiting; for make no mistake Labour are not going to mend or fix a single wrong thing in this country, but they will add to the demise of the country and take us all with them. For the life of me I cannot see what others see when their polling figures are released … I just can’t.
This is a fantasy, Reform in its present muddle can't even win a by-election. The 'team' at HQ are hopeless incompetents. Can't even produce a decent leaflet, never mind a newspaper or website or memes for Twitter/X or punchy videos for Youtube. There are STILL no recognisable Spokesmen or women touring Britain, shaking village halls with big speeches, rattling the rafters. And why isn't Reform running a petition website? All Reform will do is make Labour's win bigger - but maybe that is the intention of certain HQ staff, throwing spanners in the works, making a fool of Richard Tice.