The Campaign Begins!

Rishi Sunak has started to frame the next big election battle.

Hello all, welcome back to Heaver News and as ever I hope this newsletter finds you well.

There is much pessimism as to the prospects of the Tories at the next election. Much of it is pretty logical.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

The post-Johnson Conservatives have been consistently hammered in votes and polls, with Rishi Sunak’s personal approval ratings hovering around their lowest ever right now.

Reading comments from paid subscribers of Heaver News week after week there is clear frustration - bordering on disgust - at the Government’s lack of delivery on issue after issue.

So how does Rishi Sunak intend to win back former Tory voters frozen out of the process that saw Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss ousted?

What is his plan of action moving forward? Voters have so far watched as a supposedly Conservative Government has delivered high taxes, high immigration and overseen a small boats crisis it still has not stopped.

In fact trust from some Brexiteers in Sunak’s Tories has fallen so low that they will now be sceptical of any pledges made, no matter what they are.

But the Prime Minister did yesterday begin what looks set to be a series of announcements with a move to water down some of the most mad, insane green agenda.

Instead of going down a hardline green path that would lead to economic ruin, the Government yesterday laid out how:

“Today we're adopting a new approach to Net Zero that is pragmatic, proportionate and realistic – meeting upcoming targets without adding burdens to working families. We have led on reducing emissions faster than any other major economy.

“Because of the progress we have already made, the UK’s share of global emissions is now less than 1%. As we continue to cut emissions, we also need to make sure we do not lose the consent of the British people facing higher living costs.

“The UK is a world leader in cutting emissions, surpassing the targets most countries have set for 2030 including Australia, Canada, Japan and the US. We have overdelivered on all our targets to date.

“Reaching our targets does not need to come unnecessarily at the expense of people facing higher costs. So we’re easing the burden, including extending the deadline on the ban of the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 5 years – in line with countries like France and Germany.”

Whilst Rishi Sunak himself made clear that:

“We will never impose unnecessary and heavy-handed measures on you, the British people. We will still meet our international commitments and hit Net Zero by 2050.”

The green agenda has become like a religion for a noisy few who are radicalised to the point of having a completely warped perception of reality.

Thankfully, as ever, most people in this great country take a pragmatic view. Beyond the howls of Remainstream media, YouGov have found that:

“By 50% to 34%, Britons support the Government's proposal to push back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035.”

Their research also found that:

“38% say the Government should keep its current climate change plans and its Net Zero by 2050 commitment.

“Slightly more, however, (44%) support delaying or dropping some commitments, although this includes only 17% who want to abandon Net Zero by 2050.”

So this move by the Government clearly has support, setting some of the battle lines for the next election.

At the same time of course you have had Labour’s Keir Starmer meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. That meeting followed Labour’s announcement that they would seek to rewrite the UK-EU Deal.

In a truly amazing coincidence, the day that Starmer and Macron met saw news break in The Telegraph of a French-German proposal for the UK to rejoin the European Union as a so-called ‘associate member’.

It comes at a time that the EU is desperately seeking to expand and clearly views the UK being back in the bloc as part of that strategy.

In fact The Times reported on the blueprint being tailor-made for a potential Starmer-led Government:

“Macron is a strong supporter of the associate membership proposal, which a Brussels diplomatic source said had been crafted to appeal to a future Labour Government.”

It all gives the clearest insight yet as to what direction a Labour Government would take, if in power.

Having sought to downplay a Rejoin agenda, most can surely see now that Labour would seek to push the UK back towards Brussels and then back in the bloc completely.

So there you have it. Both on the Conservative and Labour sides, an insight into their current thinking and indeed the sort of arguments likely to be made at the next General Election. The campaign has begun.

Yet if Sunak’s Tories - still trailing Labour by between 15-20 points in most opinion polls - seriously want to win back support from those drifting away to Reform UK, they will need to go much further.

Reform Leader Richard Tice has followed up the announcement of a Shadow Cabinet by calling for the Government take firmer action:

“The Conservative Party should go even further and scrap all of Net Zero.

“Net Zero is the greatest financial negligence that the government has imposed on its people. Only Reform UK will scrap all of Net Zero.”

Similarly on HS2, Tice is applying the pressure:

“Sunak should do the right thing and scrap ALL of HS2.

“He should invest the savings in the regions and in infrastructure projects generating real economic growth across the UK.”

Again this gives an insight into the sorts of arguments you can expect from Reform during the General Election campaign.

But the defining issue for Sunak’s Conservatives at the next election will be immigration.

For Leavers, asylum and immigration is now the number one issue, above even the economy.

Having done away with EU open borders, the Conservatives have chosen to continue with mass immigration at levels beyond anything we have seen before.

And the scandal of illegal boat crossings from France has led to an obscene £8 million per day hotel bill being picked up by taxpayers.

If Sunak pledged to cut legal net migration down to the tens of thousands, leave the ECHR and start taking boats back to France instead of giving them hundreds of millions of pounds, I suspect it would go some way to winning back those who have moved away from the Tories.

Will Sunak’s incoming string of announcements commit to such an agenda? I highly doubt it.

But paid subscribers please let me know in the comments below what you would like to hear from the PM and I’ll highlight the best suggestions in the next article.