Reform Is Real
Richard Tice's party broke through in the latest by-elections.
So the Reform UK surge in the national polls is real.
The Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections have shown us a number of things.
Not only are many Conservative voters staying at home - many are now switching to Reform and voting for them instead.
Predictable arguments around ‘mid-term blues’ for the Tories are a complete nonsense. The General Election is nearly here. It is likely the election year.
Was the decision to ditch proven election winner Boris Johnson for Rishi Sunak a wise one? I’m sure many Tory MPs now regret making that move.
The fundamental problem for the Conservatives is that they have chosen to ignore their own Brexit manifesto. The one that secured them that thumping 2019 majority.
Legal net migration should have been massively cut. There should have been a concerted campaign to maximise Brexit opportunities and gain competitive advantage over the European Union. It isn’t too much to expect a Conservative Government to significantly reduce the tax burden rather than increase it.
And they should have been much more proactive to stop the boats. Leaving the ECHR. Stop foreign interference. They only had to listen to their own former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.
Instead the Tories have sadly actively ignored the wishes of their own voters, Brexit voters overall and indeed the majority of the country.
So it should come as absolutely no surprise then that Reform’s support has significantly increased in recent months.
When it comes to Wellingborough, it is worth reiterating just how safe a Tory seat this was. The party has gone from a 62% vote share in 2019 down to just 25% at the by-election.
Labour’s winning 46% and Reform UK’s 13% third place finish both confirm the poll trends we’ve seen. They are devastating for Rishi Sunak.
It was a similar story in Kingswood where the Tories fell from 56% in 2019 to 35% now, with Labour gaining the seat on 45% and Reform the third party again on just over 10%.
For Conservatives to just dismiss this all as inevitable by-election defeats for the governing party would be incredibly stupid. A recent mega poll had the number of Tory MPs after the next General Election diminished down to just 80 or so.
The Tory Government will only win back support if it gives voters a reason to back them. The line of urging people to vote Conservative simply to stop Labour is unlikely to be compelling enough.
As you might expect, Reform Leader Richard Tice was chuffed with the results and highlighted that Wellingborough was Reform’s:
“Highest ever by-election result & above our polling average.”
Whilst Andrea Jenkyns, a Conservative MP who actually understands the perilous position her party is now in, reiterated her call:
“However difficult for fellow MPs we have no choice, we have to change Leader.
“We don’t want to be here but sticking heads in the sand will make matters worse.
“Last chance saloon to change course with a new Leader, be tough on immigration & save our great country from the socialists.”
I think Patrick O’Flynn’s analysis is a spot-on perspective:
“I'm 58. The only times the Tory party has won a large majority in my lifetime are when they have been seen to make a ‘right-wing’ offer.
“1983, 1987, 2019. In all that time a left-wing offer has never won an election.
“Don't tell me a party can't win from the Right.”
The Tory Party’s best chance now would be to get in a new Leader and then call a snap election, hoping for a fresh Leader poll bounce. That chain of events seems unlikely however.
Meanwhile expect Reform UK to continue to build momentum and support in the polls now they’ve established themselves as the third party in two by-elections.
The impressive national poll support has now translated into actual votes. Reform is for real.
As ever I want to hear from paid subscribers. Please comment below with your thoughts on the by-election results and I’ll include them in the next newsletter.
Am I being too negative but I'm thinking if a highly smart intelligent man like Ben Habib can't get elected then it proves to me that the people of this country are just too dumb and hope is ....
NO IT DIDN'T!!! It was a rubbish result that only helped Labour to a bigger win. It is so depressing watching Richard Tice make such an utter horlicks of running a proper opposition party with such WONDERFUL OPEN GOALS. Will some Reform supporters here please urge Tice & Habib to learn to DELEGATE and form a visible Shadow Cabinet? Surely after all this time and by-election flops they must realise they're doing something wrong? The public are screaming out for a proper, tough, hard hitting party on the Right. Reform needs a cabinet of a dozen competent people; a Shadow Immigration Spokesman, a Shadow Chancellor/spokesman, a Spokesman calling out the anti-parent, gender obsessed Marxist education 'service'. A Transport Spokesman demolishing anti-car nonsense. A Spokesman/woman attacking idiotic spending in the NHS on 'diversity and inclusivity' commissars etc. Reform must be seen as a TEAM, not a one man band, with those spokespeople touring British towns and villages, honing their arguments, polishing their speeches and stirring the internet! And Reform needs a top quality but simple newspaper covering all issues, always ready for final tweaks so it can be on the streets days after a by election is called to get the campaign started. Either do this or watch Labour win, and finally destroy what's left of Britain.