Boris Out, Sunak In?
Johnson's dramatic exit could lead to a Sunak coronation today.
Good morning and welcome back to Heaver News on a day where we could find out who the new Prime Minister will be.
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Prime Minister Sunak?
The last-minute withdrawal of Boris Johnson from the Conservative leadership race came as a shock - including to many of those Conservative MPs who had been rallying around to get Boris over the 100 MPs nomination threshold.
Sunday night’s thunderbolt came out of the blue for the likes of Tory MP James Duddridge. The situation completely switched between 8am and 10pm, as you can see below.
A return for Boris would have had the most public support of the Conservative options: the research shows Johnson going closest in a match-up against Keir Starmer and the Tories performing best against Labour with Boris back.
Of course the late timing of Johnson’s withdrawal meant that there wasn’t really enough time for an alternative candidate to emerge, leaving only two possibilities: Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt.
Sunak is way out ahead and it isn’t even clear if Mordaunt will be able to meet the 100 MP threshold.
So we are looking at a possible coronation and the man who Conservative members rejected in a run-off against Liz Truss could now become Prime Minister without even grassroot Tory supporters getting a say this time.
Several Tory MPs are clearly unhappy about that prospect this time. John Redwood has spoken out:
“As some Conservative MPs undermined the members choice of PM, members should be offered a choice of candidate this week with a ballot.”
Whilst Workington MP Mark Jenkinson has said:
“It often seems that for their membership fee, all Conservative members get is further demands on their time and wallets. Every few years they may get to choose their candidate.
“CCHQPress have done a great job of organising an online ballot in record time. Members must choose.”
Meanwhile former Conservative MEP David Campbell Bannerman wrote last night:
“This is very sad news for the Conservative Party. So now we have a coronation of a losing candidate rejected by the membership just last month. I am afraid we are now inviting oblivion.”
And Tory MP Nadine Dorries had this to say:
“Boris would have won members vote - already had a mandate from the people.
“Rishi and Penny, despite requests from Boris refused to unite which would have made governing utterly impossible. Penny actually asked him to step aside for her.
“It will now be impossible to avoid a GE.”
As Dorries mentions, an election must now be on the cards. There was already significant public support for a General Election - including from many Conservative voters.
Two changes of Prime Minister mean that the public understandably feel they should be given a say, casting their verdict on what has gone on here.
Of course as I have written before, the person who becomes the next Tory Leader faces a badly divided party and will have little authority. They have inherited a majority won by a Boris Johnson-led party.
If the new PM wants true authority, including over their bitterly divided Parliamentary Party, they will need to win an election on their vision and manifesto.
Conservative Brexiteers Go Reform
Interesting to note that YouGov’s latest poll with Reform UK on only 5% still means that 13% of Leavers and 13% of 2019 Conservative voters are currently switching to Reform.
The party is now claiming to have 500 General Election candidates ready, meaning the party is on course to stand in virtually every constituency at the next election.
Reform Leader Richard Tice has claimed that the recent Conservative shambles has helped his party, writing:
“Thanks Rishi and Boris. Member numbers soaring for Reform UK in last 2 hours since Boris pulled out.”
A Sunak coronation could well boost Reform further if Conservative members are cut out of this Tory leadership contest.
This is a setback for Nigel’s long-term strategy. As I understand it, the idea was that a Boris led government would lose to Labour in in a GE but not by much. A fragile Labour/deplorable majority would be more likely to usher-in a change to the First Past The Post voting system enabling Reform to make headway. It now looks more likely that the Conservatives will be wiped-out at a GE, FPTP continuing and Conservative values unrepresented for a generation. I may have to cut-down on my interest in politics to protect my sanity!
Sunak is devious, cunning and a smooth talker; everything Truss wasn't. Might be the right choice for now, until Farage gets a new party started. He's the only conservative in British politics.