Blue Wall Crumbling
The Conservatives face a growing challenge in their traditional heartlands.
It’s getting ugly in the Blue Wall for the Tories. These are traditionally conservative constituencies as defined by polling firm Redfield and Wilton to be areas that meet the following five criteria:
1) The constituency is in the South of England
2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections
3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree
4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5%
5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.
The Blue Wall comprises of 42 seats that the Tories won in 2019, where Labour actually came third overall in terms of percentage of the vote.
Fast forward to 2023 and and as others are now noting, it is working class Leavers who the Tories have lost most support from since the last General Election.
Of course there is still some time until the next General Election. But a huge window of opportunity has so far been wasted by the Government.
The outcome is that Labour are now ahead of the Tories in the Blue Wall, with a sizeable 10-point lead.
Current levels of support are not actually that different compared to November - with one notable exception.
Reform UK have doubled their support in these areas - from a low base - to 6%. It is the latest example of the trend we’ve seen of Reform increasing their support throughout 2022 and now into 2023.
So can Rishi Sunak win back those voters disappointed by the Tory Government’s lack of delivery?
The problem is - and some seem to be ignoring this factor - that Rishi Sunak personally is becoming more unpopular the longer he is PM.
This latest Blue Wall survey, for instance, finds Sunak with a negative approval rating in these seats for the first time. That’s pretty bleak for the Tories.
So what’s the solution if the Conservatives want to win back Leaver support? The answer is blatantly clear and was reflected in Redfield and Wilton’s polling during the Conservative leadership race.
Unsurprisingly it was Suella Braverman’s policy platform that was found to have the most appeal to Conservative voters.
As Redfield reported in July 2022:
“Altogether, a plurality of voters in the Red Wall who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 say they would be most likely to vote for Suella Braverman’s platform of completing Brexit, leaving the European Court of Human Rights, scrapping EU taxes and laws in Northern Ireland, keeping borders secure, cutting VAT on energy bills, cutting taxes on businesses, and supporting the Rwanda immigration policy.”
They’ve got the majority in Parliament. Perhaps the Tories should give the above a go if they want to win the next election?
I think it is now too late for the Tory Party to redeem themselves. They have failed miserably to drain the swamp so the Civil Service which is huge calls the shots. Therefore too much at stake to risk our one and only vote again.
Not surprising, they're not remotely 'Conservative'.
https://youtu.be/TJmvR5Whmso