Truss v Sunak’s Leave-Remain Split and Badenoch Top Choice
Truss v Sunak’s Leave-Remain Split and Badenoch Top Choice
Conservative Support For Next Leader Divides Along Brexit Lines
Good morning and welcome to another addition of the Brexiteer Bulletin.
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Leave-Remain Leadership Split
It is well established that Liz Truss goes into the Conservative leadership run-off with a commanding lead over Rishi Sunak and that was underlined again by YouGov’s latest poll of Conservative members.
Truss starts this race with a commanding 24-point lead, leading 62-38 - and when you dig into the figures it isn’t hard to see why.
Conservative members currently think Liz Truss would make a better Party Leader than Rishi Sunak and she is considered more trustworthy. Many Conservatives are still angry about Boris Johnson being forced out.
What I really found interesting in this poll though was the Remain-Leave split. Truss having said she simply got it wrong when she backed Remain - refreshing - has racked up Brexiteer endorsements ranging from Jacob Rees-Mogg to Lord Frost.
And the YouGov research finds a whopping 70% of Conservative members who voted Leave backing Truss.
By contrast, an overwhelming 73% of Tories who backed Remain are now supporting Sunak, despite he having voted Leave.
Whilst that seems an even split it of course isn’t really as there are many more Leave-voting Conservative supporters than there are Remain. In 2016 YouGov’s research was that 61% of Tory voters were Leavers.
The overwhelming Tory Leaver support Liz Truss currently has is what has given her such a large lead going into this campaign. If Rishi Sunak is to have any chance of closing the gap, he will need to work hard to win over the Leave-voting majority of Conservatives.
Liz Rising
There are also some early signs that Truss has a bit of momentum with the British public now the choices for future PM have been clarified.
Redfield and Wilton have recorded the highest support for Truss in a head-to-head with Labour Leader Keir Starmer that they have ever recorded.
In the space of just a few days, Starmer’s lead has fallen by 7 points
Starmer actually has a larger lead currently over Rishi Sunak. Both Truss and Sunak will want to present themselves as the candidate best placed to beat Labour but they will need to win back the Brexiteer voter coalition to do so.
Badenoch Number One
Kemi Badenoch undoubtedly electrified the leadership race and the research showed she would have had a lead over any candidate she faced in the Conservative membership run-off.
Of course she got knocked out and won’t be on the ballot. But she remains the top choice for the Tory grassroots.
When YouGov asked in this same poll of 730 Conservative Party members: “Which, if any, of the following candidates would you have most wanted to replace Boris Johnson?”
They found Kemi Badenoch still the most popular choice on 24%, followed by Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. An astonishing rise.
There are a few endorsements in this race that could have a big impact and give one candidate fresh momentum. Badenoch’s backing for Truss or Sunak has the potential to be a key moment in the race.