Truss General Election & Reform's 300 Reveal
Can the PM control her party without an election win?
Dear oh dear. A Conservative Party Conference that should have been a crowning moment for the new Tory Leader and Prime Minister has turned into a mess of rebellion, u-turn and infighting.
Of course Liz Truss won the leadership race as the grassroots choice, picked by Tory members. Had the Parliamentary Party controlled the final vote, there is little doubt that Rishi Sunak would have replaced Boris Johnson.
Instead, Truss won the membership vote and pledged to deliver policies even if they made her unpopular. Indeed some measures in the mini-budget did - with many of her own MPs.
As I have previously highlighted, much of what was in the budget is actually quite popular with the public. A
bolishing the 45p tax rate was hardly a priority for voters and 44% of Brits oppose the measure - but it did also have some public support.
The principle of the new PM already being forced to u-turn under pressure sets a very bad precedent. It means rebel MPs and Labour alike now know that the Truss Government may blow over if put under enough pressure.
To be fair to Truss, the level of rebellion being driven by her own MPs during the party’s conference is completely unmanageable.
Numerous Conservative MPs have spoken out against the Truss policy plan. Up to 70 looked set ready to block the Government’s agenda.
It looks to me like some Tory MPs have so little faith in Liz Truss and dislike her to such an extent that they are aiming to force her out before the next General Election.
If the polls continue the way they are going, don’t rule that out. A combination of u-turning weakness, bitter internal divides and a shambolic operation thus far have led to some unbelievably dire poll numbers for the Conservatives.
As I pointed out during the Conservative leadership race, Liz Truss was actually beating Keir Starmer in the head-to-head PM polls back then.
Not any more. Labour’s poll lead has exploded, with Redfield and Wilton now giving Starmer’s Party a 28-point advantage.
The authority of Liz Truss has been shattered to such an extent that Starmer now leads her by a larger poll gap than any lead the Labour Leader ever managed over Boris Johnson.
The problem for Truss is that many Conservative MPs, clearly already sceptical of her, will feel their doubt is justified given the shambles that has unfolded.
There really is only one way forward for Truss from here. She needs to deliver conservative policies, supported by Brexiteer Tory voters, and dare her rebel MPs to block her agenda.
I’m talking about new grammar schools, triggering Article 16, exiting ECHR, lowering net migration, scrapping the BBC Licence Fee and unelected House of Lords whilst fighting for lower taxes and energy independence.
If she pursued that agenda with public support and MPs threatened to block her further, then the nuclear option remains. It is the option that Boris Johnson chose not to take, for reasons I still don’t quite understand.
Surely Truss would prefer to try and assert her authority for her mandate by attempting to win a General Election, than going down as another Tory Leader ousted without voters casting their verdict?
Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries hinted at this path, saying:
“Widespread dismay at the fact that 3 years of work has effectively been put on hold.
“No one asked for this. C4 sale, online safety, BBC licence feee review - all signed off by Cabinet all ready to go, all stopped.
“If Liz wants a whole new mandate, she must take to the country.”
Without an election win it currently seems hard to imagine Truss now gaining the authority she needs to implement her agenda, not least with her own rebellious MPs.
Of course many will argue that an early election would be insanity and that the Tories would be destroyed at the polls currently. But if you are a Leader confident in your agenda, surely fighting for that mandate by campaigning and debating is better than being forced to resign?
This all seems extremely premature of course. It is. But consider the claim that 20 MP no confidence letters have already gone in against Truss and you see that clock is already ticking.
In the end I think Truss may either have to call an early General Election next year or risk suffering the same fate as Boris Johnson.
Reform Reveal Hundreds Of Candidates
Richard Tice’s Reform UK meanwhile held a pretty polished, relatively low-key conference recently.
It is yet another big challenge for Truss’s Conservatives, with Tice now leading a party that is calling for the UK to leave ECHR.
The scale of the Reform election campaign has been underlined by the revelation that the party already has 300 General Election candidates approved and allocated.
A timely reminder that unhappy Conservative voters will have another party to back if the Government fails to deliver.
The rebel MPs need to be very careful. The grassroots party is in no mood for this capricious restlessness from Westminster. If they think a Truss administration will lead to electoral defeat then it may be defeat for them, deselection, particularly for disloyalty is a very real option. Of course the polls look bleak at the moment thanks to the media being coop-a-hoop with the rebels. They will be the architects of their own demise unless they pull together and stop behaving like football hooligans ready to fight anyone who doesn’t wear their colours.
The Tories seem determined to destroy themselves. Boris had his faults but what have they gained by the disgusting action of stabbing him in the back....they've opened the door for Labour, with no one to blame but themselves!