Tories Gain Labour Seat, Reform UK Boost & Truss Battle

A notable by-election defeat for Starmer's Labour.

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Conservative Gain

Council by-election results can of course be incredibly volatile with local issues and campaigns playing a pivotal role.

I must say that this week’s Council by-election result in Bolton has caught my eye though.

A by-election in Rumworth saw a chunky decline for Labour and a rise in support for the Tories resulting in fairly dramatic Conservative gain from Labour.

Britain Elects @BritainElects

Last night's Rumworth (Bolton) council by-election result: CON: 55.0% (+44.1) LAB: 37.6% (-35.2) GRN: 5.3% (-2.6) LDEM: 1.2% (-0.8) REF: 0.8% (+0.8) No UKIP (-6.3) as prev. Chgs. w/ 2019 Votes cast: 2,928 Conservative GAIN from Labour.

medium.comPreviewing the elections of 15th September 2022“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”

The Leader of Bolton's Conservative Group, Cllr Martyn Cox, has said:

“This is quite simply a stunning result for Bolton Conservatives. Full credit goes to Ayyub Patel and his team who have worked incredibly hard to win one of the safest Labour seats in the town.

“Rumworth now has two Conservative councillors who are committed to improving their area."

Incredibly, Andrew Teale points out how he once described Rumworth as one of Labour’s safest wards in the entire country!

Andrew Teale @andrewteale

This is the Bolton, Rumworth result: it's a C gain from Lab. Six years ago I described this in the Previews as one of the safest Lab wards in the country.

Cllr Stuart Hartigan @CllrHartigan

@andrewteale Conservative 1610 🗳️✅ Labour 1102 Green 156 Lib Dem 36 Bolton for Change 24

Bolton Conservatives won 54% of the vote in a seat that they describe as having been considered “Labour’s safest seat”.

Bolton Conservatives @BoltonTories

Celebrations are held back due to the period of mourning but we’d like to congratulate Ayyub Patel on being elected as Rumworth’s newest councillor at yesterday’s by-election. Ayyub secured 54% of the vote in a ward in which has always been considered Labour’s safest seat.

A reminder that if Labour are to lead a Government after the next election, it will probably be propped up by the Liberal Democrats and SNP.

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Poll Boost For Reform UK

A big warning for Liz Truss comes in this latest research, showing just how many Brexiteers and 2019 Tory voters are currently considering voting for the Reform UK Party.

This really should serve as a huge wake-up call for every Conservative MP.