The Real Opposition
Reform are crushing the Tories.
There are already hints that Kemi Badenoch’s leadership could be in trouble.
Things would probably be more serious if all of the 1st May English Council elections were still going ahead.
But even with those outrageous cancellations, there are signs of trouble ahead.
Reports have started to spring up of a leadership challenge against Badenoch from frustrated Conservative MPs.
The current Tory leadership are taking their time, refusing to commit to much actual policy. Would anyone believe them anyway?
But just how long does the current Conservative Leader have to turn things around?
Right now the Tories are being outfought and outflanked by a Reform UK party with a surging membership, that is busy getting organised across the country.
Not only that, but the Tories are now the third party in pretty much every national poll.
The latest YouGov Westminster research has just dropped and it shows once again the new reality in British politics.
Reform UK lead on 27%, with Labour second on 25%.
As for Badenoch’s Conservatives? Six points behind Reform, on 21%.
Just as many voted Labour to kick the Tories out of Government, much of the Conservative support will be an anti-Labour vote.
Once the penny drops that Reform are the real opposition and are better placed to defeat Keir Starmer’s Labour, support will further cascade away from the Tories.
As ever when you drill down into this research data you come across some very striking numbers.
Almost 1 in 4 Conservative voters from last year is now a Reformer.
Leave voters now back Reform over the Conservatives to the tune of a 20 point lead (49% vs 29%).
Whilst in England, Reform’s lead is actually three points over Labour already.
Had the full range of elections due to take place on 1st May gone ahead, we would have been looking at massive Reform gains nationwide.
But these sorts of polling figures are now consistent, the new normal.
One party is now establishing itself as the main challenger to Labour. And it isn’t the Conservatives.
Sorry to keep saying the same thing but I wish it would get through: Any news on Reform appointing key spokesmen and women, so it starts to look like a proper opposition? And why do we all get inboxes full of shocking stories of Britain's decline but NOTHING from Reform? I'm a paid up member, it's like waiting for Godot. Why isn't someone at Reform shouting about the COMEDY of Communist Starmer wanting British troops in Ukraine when OUR BORDERS are wide open to attack on a daily basis? Yes, Reform are looking good in polls but not because of anything they are doing, it's simply because the LibLabCon are so utterly appalling.