The Lead Is Growing
Reform extend advantage as Tories trail in third.
It’s fast becoming a trend - and one of the most dramatic things we’ve seen in British politics recently.
Not only are Reform UK now leading in the polls, but the party is extending its lead.
If that’s worrying for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party then its a total disaster for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.
Indeed if things continue on this trajectory don’t expect Badenoch to lead the Tories into the next General Election. Tory MPs will probably panic and hand Robert Jenrick the job instead.
So here is the new reality: Find Out Now have got Reform UK on 27% compared to Labour on 23%.
How long before Reform score over 30%? Those soft metropolitan lefties who predicted the party had a limited ceiling of support have once again proven themselves to be clueless.
Farage is on the charge, vowing to finish the job and properly deliver Brexit.
The Tories meanwhile are now the third party on 21%, meaning its now a six point lead for Farage’s party over Badenoch’s Conservatives.
As Find Out Now explain:
“The main trend has been the growth of Reform UK (from 22% to 27%) – driven by them by retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning over a fifth of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning almost half (47%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would ‘definitely vote’ this time.
“Notably they have not dropped in support over any of our voting intention polls since November.”
This is no surprise. The Conservatives seem to be proud of their record-high immigration record in office.
Their pathetic performance in Government is now relegating them to third consistently, with Survation also showing that it is now a straight fight between Labour and the Reform Party.
The firm’s update is as follows:
“Survation’s latest voting intention data paints a picture of political flux in the UK. Both Labour and the Conservatives have lost three percentage points since December, with Labour now at 27% and the Conservatives trailing at 22%.
“The primary beneficiary of this decline is Reform UK, which has gained four points to reach 24%, overtaking the Conservatives to enter second place.”
And as Survation go on to explain:
“Labour is struggling to hold onto its base, retaining just 77% of its voters from July.
“The party is losing 8% of its vote share to Reform UK, while 7% have moved to the Liberal Democrats and 4% to the Greens.
“The Reform threat is more dangerous for the Conservatives.
“The Farage-led party is drawing nearly one in five (19%) of those who voted Conservative in July, up from 14% in December.
“The ability of smaller parties to pull support from both Labour and Conservative voters highlights the depth of public dissatisfaction with traditional party options.”
We were of course set to have a massive set of local elections across England on 1st May.
Sadly it seems many of them will now be delayed, with the excuse of Labour devolution restructuring local government.
Labour’s proposed changes seem to have widespread Conservative support and so the likely outcome is that millions of English voters who were due to vote in a few months time will have their local election delayed by a year or possibly even longer.
Reform are once again savaging this establishment stitch-up, with Nigel Farage hitting back:
“Only dictators cancel elections.
“Labour and the Conservatives have colluded to take away your vote in May's Council Elections.
The whole thing stinks. Is it any wonder Reform are now extending their national poll lead? Expect to see a lot more to come.
Good news. Now where's that Shadow Cabinet?