The Farage Factor

Reform are still rising with a crucial by-election on the horizon.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Good morning and welcome to another edition of Heaver News!

There’s so much going on as 2024 kicks off. Thanks as ever to paid subscribers for your comments in response to my latest post.

As we saw throughout last year, the Conservatives face a tough fight to win back those who have switched to Reform - and indeed to stop further defections.

The verdict from paid supporters of this newsletter couldn’t be clearer. First of all Margaret had this to say:

“Whatever I am told especially by Tory MPs, I am voting Reform. I have nothing to lose with the awful Labour and Tory who deserve no one’s vote.”

Whilst RW52 commented:

“I 100% agree with you Michael. It's all about momentum and it's all starting to build up now.

“I'm really happy with our 10% at the moment and with Farage AND GB News in full flow…who knows?”

Yorkieeye gave this assessment:

“Tories have allowed the media to call the tune.

“Sacking a popular PM like Johnson, who delivered an 80-seat majority, because the BBC told them to is appalling.

“The left probably cannot believe their luck that the Government have done a better job than the opposition of trashing the administration.

“The Conservatives DO NOT DESERVE to be re-elected. And they won’t be.

“Labour probably will and we will be in for a few years of ridiculous fantasy politics but they may well be the straw that breaks the camels back and galvanises a sleepwalking public into action.”

And finally Stephen gave his devastating verdict:

“If Con MPs expect the public to be intimidated into voting for 'their Party' by claiming that voting 'Reform UK' will result in a Labour Gov they should remember the 'boy who cried "WOLF" and his outcome.

“Have faith in people who BELIEVE in our Country and VOTE 'REFORM UK' and clear the 'chickens' out of the coup.”

There is a big electoral contest coming in the form of the Wellingborough by-election.

Reform are standing a serious candidate in Ben Habib, one of the Deputy Leaders of the party.

This is a constituency that in 2015 saw Conservative Peter Bone win with over 50% of the vote, with UKIP second on nearly 20%.

Redfield and Wilton’s 2024 research meanwhile shows that Reform are still breaking into record-high poll figures.

And that’s before the impact a Nigel Farage frontline politics return could have.