Sunak Wins Vote - But Reform's Surge Continues
MPs backed Rishi Sunak's Bill - but he faces a huge Reform challenge.
Good morning all and welcome again to Heaver News!
There is a big shift underway in our country right now, even after the Conservative rebellion melted away and just 11 Tory MPs ended up voting against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda Bill.
That came despite around 60 rebelling in favour of amendments to toughen up the Bill - before most of those either then abstained or actually voted for the Bill the next day.
Will Sunak’s plan work? Planes take off to Rwanda? The boats stopped? It seems pretty unlikely, but this Bill’s success is what the Prime Minister seems to be banking on.
Sunak’s Government has clearly chosen not to follow advice from the former Home Secretary Suella Braverman to leave the ECHR. And so it is likely Sunak’s plan will be end up being blunt and ineffective.
Consider this: of the 11 Tory MPs who voted against this Rwanda Bill, they included both Braverman and former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick.
In other words those who - until very recently - were closely involved in the the mayhem of the UK’s immigration and asylum system, have zero faith that Rishi Sunak’s plan goes far enough.
Following the vote, the verdict from Braverman was that:
“The Rwanda Bill will not stop the boats. It leaves us exposed to litigation & the Strasbourg Court.
“I engaged with the Government to fix it but no changes were made.
“I could not vote for yet another law destined to fail.
“The British people deserve honesty & so I voted against.”
Whilst Robert Jenrick set out his position:
“The test I set the Rwanda Bill was a simple one: will it work?
“After the Govt rejected my amendments, it was clear to me it wouldn’t succeed.
“I therefore voted against and called for a Bill that would.
“Stopping the boats is too important to the country and trust in politics.”
Perhaps the motivation for some Tory MPs was to avoid the Bill being voted down, the Government collapsing and an early General Election being called.
Because the fact is that the Tory Party’s poll numbers under Sunak continue to decline. I still think it mad that they chucked out serial election winner Boris Johnson and replaced him with someone who was defeated by Liz Truss in the Conservative members vote. But there we are.
It seems Tory MPs are intent on sticking with Sunak, even as they fall to just 20% in the latest YouGov poll. Labour now lead by a massive 27-points on 47%.
The third party in such polls increasingly is Reform UK, who hit 12% in this one compared to the Liberal Democrats on just 8%.
That 12% for Richard Tice’s party is another breakthrough high.
Reform are now backed by 25% of Leavers in YouGov’s latest survey, along with 26% of Leavers.
Interestingly, YouGov asked voters who they trust to deal with the issue of immigration.
More Brits overall now trust Nigel Farage (28%) than Keir Starmer (26%) or Rishi Sunak (19%).
More specifically when it comes to Conservative voters, whilst 35% trust Sunak, Farage is actually now far more trusted by Tory supporters. A majority (54%) back him on this.
And amongst Leavers, Farage is trusted by 52% compared to 24% for Sunak and 13% trusting Starmer.
So the Conservatives continue to sink, with Sunak hoping that his Rwanda Bill will help to finally stop the boats. That seems enormously unlikely however - and the public aren’t impressed.
Thanks to paid subscribers of this newsletter, as ever. In response to the last post, RW52 commented:
“I agree, there are interesting times ahead. The Tories will make more and more mistakes”
Whilst the plain-speaking Mrs Bucket was direct as ever:
“Farage/Tice/Reform ANYONE would win big if they stopped faffing about and got organised with their media/communications strategy AND if Tice appointed a highly visible, strong team of spokespeople on every key policy area”
Reform face two big challenges in the forthcoming by-elections, with Ben Habib standing in Wellingborough and Rupert Lowe in the Kingswood constituency. Can either break through?
And finally Anita said of a potential Farage political return:
“It will be the best thing that can happen for Reform and the Cons worst nightmare bring it on!
“Yes we may end up with Labour but thats what the Cons are!!”
Remember, if you are a paid supporter of Heaver News you can comment below and I’ll include the best ones in the next edition.
Over 500,000 'legal' migrants last year, c45,000 illegal boat migrants...and the Tories sign off another £2.5 billion to protect Ukraine's borders! The LibLabCon are not stupid, they know exactly what they are doing, they are traitors working for 'other' forces, yes Brits ARE being replaced, it's no 'theory', it's as plain as day now. Also, Net Zero is UN/WEF/COP madness, designed to destroy the economy. CO2 is NOT a significant greenhouse gas, water vapour is far greater. But if CO2 was a problem, Britain's miniscule 1% (97% natural, 3% man made) is irrelevant. But our truly silly Minister for 'Net Zero and Energy Security', Claire Coutinho, pushing two totally opposing concepts, has just signed off a £40bn 'carbon capture' scheme which will do absolutely NOTHING for the environment, it makes HS2 look sensible. These massive cash burners are designed to wreck Sterling and usher in a CBDC communist currency which the Civil Service and Bank of England are working on BUT SHOULDN'T EVEN BE CONSIDERING. Reform has a lot of open goals and should be on 50% in the polls, not 12%.
It is beyond belief and depressing to think that Human Rights can extend to allowing the destruction of other countries- The UK, Germany, France, Ireland, Holland Sweden and others.