Reform's Best Result Ever

Party now has a wider appeal than Labour or the Conservatives.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

This really is a key moment.

We’ve just seen one of the most important pieces of research relating to Reform UK drop this week.

It is likely to terrify the old parties - so once again, expect the attacks on Reform to ramp up. That’s what happens when you’re winning.

A criticism thrown at Reform previously had been that it lacks widespread appeal and couldn’t realistically expect to win enough support to form a Government.

Those arguments are now dead in the water.

In fact the latest research shows more voters in this country are considering voting Reform than Labour or the Tories.

Not only that, but fewer people are ruling out voting Reform compared to the numbers who say they are unlikely to vote for the other parties.

In other words, Reform currently has a larger potential pool of voters and a higher electoral ceiling than any other party in the country.

This is why talk of Nigel Farage becoming the next Prime Minister is very much based in reality. In fact it is currently far more likely than the Conservatives being given another chance in power.

The difference in fortunes for Labour and Reform since the General Election is stark.

This is the verdict from Ipsos when it comes to Reform’s popularity:

“36% of respondents say they are very or fairly likely to consider voting for Reform UK.

“This marks a 6% rise since July 2024, suggesting a growing appeal among the electorate.”

Whilst when it comes to Labour:

“The Labour Party has experienced a significant decline.

“31% of Britons say they will consider voting for the party, a dramatic 16 ppt drop since they were elected to government in July 2024.”

And as you can see in the graphic below from Ipsos, Reform is now viewed as the most mainstream and least toxic party. This is highly significant.

The 36% currently classing themselves as very or fairly liking to consider voting Reform is a higher figure than voted Labour at the General Election, where thanks to First Past The Post they achieved a large majority with a third of the vote.

Whilst as you can see, 61% and 60% are currently unlikely to vote Labour or Tory, compared to a lower 56% who rule out voting Reform at the moment.

Of course these numbers can change.

But what they indicate is very interesting. Essentially, the likes of Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are now viewed as being more fringe than Nigel Farage’s Reform.

Reform UK’s agenda is now the mainstream which is why you’ve already seen the Labour Government nick a Reform policy (cutting foreign aid to increase defence spending) and the Badenoch’s Tories slam Net Zero 2050 (which their party set up).

The challenge for Reform is to build up these numbers further and achieve a significant electoral breakthrough on 1st May, in the areas where local elections haven’t been cancelled.

But make no mistake about it: a very significant shift is underway in this country.

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