Reform UK Sink Sunak

The Conservatives just got heavily punished.

Good morning all and welcome to today’s edition of Heaver News!

As ever thanks so much for reading and supporting this newsletter. Cheers to Bobbie for becoming the latest paid supporter, I do appreciate your support!

I wrote in the last edition of this newsletter that “the PM appears to be slowly sinking”. That process seems to be accelerating.

The Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-election results were truly horrendous for the Conservatives.

In many ways both defeats sum up how the Tories have shifted since 2019 - and not in a positive way.

An over 24,000-strong majority in Mid Bedfordshire turned into a Labour gain in 2023.

Whilst Tamworth, a seat that saw an over 66% vote share for the Tories at the last General Election, also switched to Labour.

Do Conservative MPs now seriously think they are more likely to retain their seats with Rishi Sunak leading their party than if they had stuck with Boris Johnson or Liz Truss?

What is the great Sunak vision? The PM had the chance to present an exciting plan in his Conference speech and failed to do so. Too stiff, too corporate.

The current leadership of the Tories don’t seem to listen much to Lord Frost. But they should. This was his assessment once the votes had been counted:

“The Tamworth & Mid-Beds by-elections are extremely bad for my party Conservatives, and I don't think it helps to suggest otherwise, as some party figures have done this morning.

“The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*.

“The very worst current polls show us holding 100-150 seats at an election. But Tamworth is our 55th safest seat.

“Yes, things are different at by elections and there were probably special factors.

“But these results show that the national polls are broadly correct and that a strategy of denial is unlikely to work.

“If your voters don't want to come out and vote for you then you don't win elections. It's as simple as that.”

The Chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, David Campbell Bannerman, gave another dose of reality:

“Not one Conservative MP can feel safe this morning. Mid Beds had a 24k majority - one of highest in country - and Tamworth 20k.

“This is a Tsunami not a storm. Change is needed.”

I know many of you who read Heaver News - via polls I’ve held and comments from paid subscribers - are backing Reform UK.

Richard Tice has managed to get the party regularly hitting between 7% - 10% in national polls but they have needed that to convert at elections.

Well Reform came third in Tamworth and saved their deposit. More than that though, the number of votes for Reform UK in both by-elections was greater than Labour’s majority over the Tories.

In other words if Reform voters in those seats had voted Conservative instead, Sunak’s party would have held on and would now have two more Tory MPs. I suspect this is a mere preview of what is to come at the next General Election.

Brexiteers across the country are appalled that post-Brexit the Government has chosen to ramp up legal net migration to new record highs, whilst failing to stop the boats and refusing to ditch the ECHR.

There is no prospect of Tice bailing out Tory MPs by standing down Reform candidates. You won’t see a repeat of 2019 when Conservative MPs were given a clear run by the Brexit Party.

Responding to the by-election results, Tice made the point that:

“Twice in same night Reform UK have ensured Tories lost their seat with this by election result.

“This despite huge squeeze pressure from Tories to voters saying do not vote Reform.”

And looking ahead to the General Election, the Reform Leader pledged:

“Believe me: ⁦Reform UK stand in every seat.

“We will ensure Tories are punished for 13 years of failure. Time for their P45.”

I have previously said on Heaver News that time is running out for the Conservatives to turn it around. It may now be too late.