Reform Target Badenoch's Seat
Farage starts 2025 with a huge challenge.
The energy and momentum is with Reform UK as we start off 2025.
As Nigel Farage kicks off the year with a series of regional conferences - that all sold out - a new poll has shown just how quickly things have changed.
This pace of change since the General Election is simply astonishing.
We now learn from a Stonehaven mega poll that Reform would go from 5 seats won at last year’s General Election to over 100 MPs now.
It is bad news for Labour, as Stonehaven explain:
“Our latest MRP model paints a dramatic picture of Labour’s waning support.
“If there were an election tomorrow, Labour would lose its majority, dropping from 411 seats to 278.
“Reform UK would surge from 5 seats to 120, while the Conservatives would make modest gains, rising to 157 seats.”
There is further bad news for Keir Starmer’s allies:
“While much of the post-election narrative has focused on the threat Reform poses to the Conservatives, our findings reveal that most of the increases in Reform support have come from 2024 Labour voters, not the Tories.”
As to how high Reform’s support could hit? Already there is talk of the party potentially winning over 200 seats next time round.
This demonstrates the huge electoral volatility that is here to stay:
“Reform UK’s rise is more than just a warning sign for Labour.
“We have Reform with a greater than 10% chance of winning in 244 seats.
“Without a strategy to address this, the shallow coalition that carried Labour to power last year could quickly unravel.”
Can Reform UK lead in a national Westminster poll this year, triggering an almighty establishment meltdown? I believe so.
As for the Reform challenge to the Conservatives, last night Farage made clear that Badenoch’s constituency is now a target seat for Reform:
“The Conservative Leader lied and said our members were fake.
“We have 400 members in her constituency and I am inviting them to a rally in her seat.
“Reform UK is making North West Essex a target seat for 2029.”
North West Essex - Reform gain?
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I always read comment about TR with interest because People have become so tribal over him.
I'm working class by background and perfectly able to see he was first to scream from the rooftops the dangers of islamist extremism going unchecked. The horrendous details of the gangs we are hearing about have gone unchecked by both political parties and they should be condemned for it.
I am objective enough to see that TR was at the forefront and I give him credit for highlighting it and never stopped highlighting it...BUT... I agree with Matt Goodwin that he will always be toxic because of his links to EDL and the aggressive nature of the groups he associated with when he was younger. That might not bother some folks but, his petty crime and continual inability to obdy the law points to a man who might share concerns of many but will not be supported by the majority.
No politician in Britain will gain any majority by associating with his previous connections and for me as someone from working class does not see that as class hatred as some have suggested.
In a digit age you can't escape your past so how you start then sets the scene I'm afraid. He's not the only one who has lost reputation because of previous misdemeanors and he won't be the last.
I wish TR personally the best but I will always see the missed opportunity he had and continue to support Reform. I think they need to keep going and take care who they associate with from all directions.
Happy 2025.
While the grooming gang scandal was happening, where were Reform seniors? Condemning Tommy Robinson weren't they? Nigel knows he's messed up here. TR has been hounded and jailed for minor nonsense but on this massive issue, he stood tall, alone, was spectacularly brave...and RIGHT. I don't see how Reform can really win big if they don't confront the biggest elephant in the room.