Reform Overtaking The Tories?

The Conservative Party's decline goes on.

Hello all and welcome back to Heaver News!

So, could Reform UK overtake the Conservatives by the time of the next General Election?

Not long ago this would have been dismissed as total fantasy. No longer.

It seems most Conservative MPs are willing to back Rishi Sunak now no matter how low the Tory Party dips in the national polls.

This is quite the contrast to the days of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, that saw Remainstream media constantly screeching about a leadership crisis.

Now there are few calls for Sunak to be ousted. I believe the only Tory MPs who have publicly made such a call are Andrea Jenkyns and Simon Clarke.

Both are brave for doing so - but are the exceptions, not the rule.

As you saw with the overwhelming backing from Tory MPs for a Rwanda Bill that is unlikely to stop the boats, the Conservative approach for now seems to be back Sunak and hope there is a miraculous turnaround.

That approach seems increasingly delusional when you look at the evidence. YouGov’s latest polling has the Tories on 20% compared to Labour on 47%.

Also noteworthy is the Liberal Democrats stagnation, down to just 8%. That’s a percentage point of public support for every ten Peers they somehow have in the House of Lords.

Meanwhile Reform UK have hit another new high, on 13%. Just 7 points behind the Tories now, who should be far more nervous than many still seem.

Broken down, fewer than 50% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 currently intend to do so again.

26% of Conservative voters are now backing Reform instead, as are 27% of Leavers.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

And of course this is before a potential Nigel Farage return that could easily swing even more support Reform’s way and dent Sunak’s Tories further.

So the possibility of Reform UK overtaking the Tories in a Westminster poll now is a real possibility.

Of course the challenge for Reform is to maintain momentum. They need decent showings in the upcoming by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.

But make no mistake. As Tory MPs still - for the moment - bury their heads in the sand, the Conservatives are heading towards an almighty wipeout.

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Thanks as ever to the paid subscribers of this newsletter! Cheers for your comments in response to my previous article.

Keith asked the question:

“What's the point of Tories changing their Leader?

“No politician in the so-called main parties has the balls for real change it's all just a game and a career to them.

“We need a Steve Bannon and a war room mentality.”

Hilary is equally as unimpressed with what’s on offer from Westminster at the moment:

“It comes to something when Sunak is less popular than Starmer, the man with zero proper policy ideas, who can’t define what a woman is and who has the personality of a blancmange; and yet there he is still leader of the consocialist party because, we were told, ‘he will put the adults back in charge’...that’s going well then.”

Zorro is one of those looking ahead to the forthcoming by-election battles:

“Sunak should go. What have they got to lose?

“If only Ben Habib can take Wellingborough, that'll light the touch paper to give Reform impetus, the backbenchers to put their letters in and signal Farage to fire up the war drums.

“Anyone who thinks Starmer's got the answers is not paying attention or deluded or both.”

As ever, I’ll keep bringing you the latest here on Heaver News!