Reform Now Number One With Leavers
Richard Tice's party now has more support from Brexiteers than either the Tories or Labour.
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The extent to which the Tories have thrown away the 2019 electoral realignment is staggering.
Boris Johnson led the party to winning scores of seats the Conservatives had never held before due to massive voter support for Brexit and the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down candidates in Tory-held seats.
Much has changed since then of course. The Conservative Government’s decision to ramp up, rather than reduce, legal net migration is a catastrophic mistake.
The switch to ditch Johnson in favour of Liz Truss and then Rishi Sunak has proven to be a gamble by Conservative MPs that is increasingly unlikely to pay off.
Indeed the Conservative collapse has been accelerated by Sunak rather than reversed.
Labour now enjoy massive national poll leads on a regular basis. The Tories have hit their lowest support since the 1970s.
Yet at time of writing just a couple of Tory MPs have called for Sunak to go. In election year, where is the turnaround plan?
At the same time growth in support for Reform UK has accelerated, further boosted by Lee Anderson becoming the first Reform MP.
Rishi Sunak’s so-called ‘emergency legislation’ to stop the boats was discussed in November. It was just more talk.
The Rwanda Bill was exposed and opposed by both the former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick who both pointed out that it wasn’t anywhere near strong enough.
Braverman’s call for the UK to leave the ECHR has been ignored by the Government. And so the boats keep coming at a rapid rate.
Meanwhile the supposedly emergency plan has been delayed by the unelected Lords and so don’t expect anything to change anytime soon. The Government have once again shown a complete lack of urgency.
No wonder then that YouGov’s latest poll shows just how furious Brexiteers now are.
Yes, the top line figures are dramatic in themselves: Labour leading on 44%, the Tories dipping to 19% and Reform UK just behind on 15%.
But consider this: Reform are now the most popular party with Leave voters, backed by 33% compared to 32% for the Conservatives.
In England, Reform only trail the Tories by 2 points (19% to 17%). In the North, Reform have actually already overtaken the Conservatives,
When it comes to 2019 Conservative voters, the Tories currently hold on to just 46%, with 32% switching to the Reform Party.
Working class voters now back Reform over the Tories (23% to 19%) with Labour leading on 39%.
And amongst those aged 65+, Reform are now second polling 26% compared to the Tories on 32% and Labour in third.
What a huge shift since 2019 then. But with a Conservative Government delivering record-high legal migration, high taxes and a total lack of action to stop the boats, don’t be surprised if these numbers grow even more dramatic.
Who are these 19% of voters who still think the Tories are the answer to anything, except the question: Name the most treacherous, spineless, intellectually challenged political party of modern times?
Time to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Assumptions: 25% never vote. Assign 30% to Labour, 30% to Tory, 10% LibDem with the remainder shared out.
From 47 million voters, 12 million won't. 35 million left. Historically 40% will be in Government. Boris got 13.8 million. QED.
Throw some spanners into the works. Wales 32 seats. Scotland 59. England Galloway says he's fielding 60 + 30 like minded. 181 seats, what will they do? 459 left. On current polling, 201 for Starmer, 91 Tories, 36 LibDem. Leaves 131 seats and Starmer needs 320 for a win. 67 seats are marginal, 5% below. Throw in the Reform spanner with and without Nigel. Assume pollsters have agendas and ask dubious questions. Assume the doorstep lies or changes its mind. I'm not compacent.