Reform Now Leading!

Farage's party the most popular in the country.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

This has all happened at an astonishing pace. That alone should give us hope that things can change. Be optimistic.

It was in June 2024 that Nigel Farage announced he would return to frontline politics and stand for Parliament.

That last minute campaign had a profound impact on the General Election and led to a significant Reform breakthrough, with Nigel leading a small group of Reform MPs in Westminster.

You ain’t seen nothing yet, though.

Since that time, Farage has made key appointments with the likes of Zia Yusuf and Nick Candy coming in as Chairman and Treasurer.

The aim? Build a national infrastructure capable of winning the next General Election.

I have been predicting a poll that showed Reform leading nationally. We’ve already seen it and earlier than I thought.

Yesterday, Find Out Now revealed that not only are Farage’s party leading, but they have a 3 point lead.

Hitting yet another record high, Reform are on 26% compared to the Tories on 23% with Labour third on 22%.

As the polling firm have explained:

“For the first time Reform UK have a clear lead in our voting intention polling, their levels of support having grown steadily since November.

“This is driven by them retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning over a fifth of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning almost half (46%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time.

“Notably, although new Reform UK voters are twice as likely to come from the Conservatives than from Labour, their single-largest source of new supporters is people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time.”

Where would this take us in terms of actual seats?

Well, analysis by Election Maps UK finds Reform winning the most seats with 190 MPs compared to the Conservatives winning 141 constituencies.

Labour would collapse down 250 seats to 161 MPs, though still ahead of the Tories.

These are staggering numbers when you consider that our still fairly recent General Election produced that whopping Labour majority and just 5 Reform MPs.

First Past The Post is a brutal voting system. But clearly if Reform can continue to build momentum and secure more votes than the Tories or Labour, there is a tipping point.

This is why the prospect of Nigel Farage becoming Prime Minister is now very real.

Why the Tory and Labour attacks on Reform will significantly ramp up.

And why I suspect Keir Starmer’s Government are already panicking.

After all if so much has changed already, who knows where we will be in four years time?