Reform Now Denting Labour

The Farage surge is coinciding with a decrease in Labour's support.

Well the Reform UK surge is now well underway. Just how high can it now go?

The prospect of the party overtaking Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives has never looked more likely following Sunak’s disastrous D-Day disrespect, with the Prime Minister forced to apologise.

Before that, there was already further evidence of the Reform surge. And this time signs that Labour’s support could be falling along with the Conservatives.

Survation recorded a 7-point jump for Reform up to 15%, just behind the Tories on 17%.

Interestingly though, Labour were down 4 points to 43%. It wasn’t a one-off either.

That 4-point drop for Labour was also repeated in Redfield and Wilton’s research.

Though Labour still have a large lead, Reform rose to a record-high 17% compared to the Tories on 19%.

When Nigel Farage announced his return, he predicted that you would see more Labour switchers to Reform.

The electoral coalition backing Keir Starmer’s party will undoubtedly contain some voters who fundamentally disagree with strong borders.

But equally some currently backing Labour likely do so because they have watched on in disappointment since 2019 and simply want to get the Conservatives out.

It is that group who will be open to backing Farage’s Reform, particularly given the momentum the party now seems to have.

Remember, it is a complete myth that the ‘centre ground’ of politics in this country is mushy, spineless, dripping wet Toryism.

In actual fact in poll after poll the vast majority of people in this country want to see immigration vastly reduced, taxes come down, a far tougher approach on law and order and a pragmatic energy policy that prioritises reducing bills.

Some will discount Reform being able to eat into Keir Starmer’s poll lead. These are the same people who just weeks ago dismissed any prospect of Reform winning seats.

Already we now see current projections that show Nigel Farage winning in Clacton and Richard Tice within just 2 points of becoming a Reform MP in Boston and Skegness.

And with Reform also close to overtaking the Conservatives with 2019 Tory voters, don’t be surprised if you start to see increasing numbers of Labour voters switching to Reform as well.