Reform Majority?

Farage's party are breaking records.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

A Reform majority Government?

Not long ago that would have been dismissed as overly ambitious to put it mildly.

It can’t be now. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK continue to break records in terms of support.

Yesterday, Find Out Now gave Reform a four point advantage with the party closing in on 30%.

Reform on 29% compared to Labour’s 25% and the Conservatives down to 18%.

This is obviously highly significant, as it shows that Kemi Badenoch has simply failed to connect with voters thus far.

Alarmingly for the Conservatives, they are already in freefall:

“Since our tracker began in November, the main trend has been an increase in support for Reform UK (up 7 points) and a decline in support for the Conservatives (down 9 points).

“This is driven by Reform retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning almost a third of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning almost half (47%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time.”

Badenoch’s job isn’t easy. No matter what the Conservatives say or promise now, who will believe them?

The party seems to be campaigning against pretty much its whole torrid record in Government.

It just isn’t very credible and I suspect there will be yet another Tory leadership challenge before the General Election.

You are also likely to see desperate Conservatives pleading for some sort of electoral deal with Reform.

But it is Reform with all of the momentum and indeed if these sorts of numbers played out at the next General Election, you would see something quite astonishing.

Estimates vary, but that Find Out Now poll would mean Reform going from just 5 MPs to winning either 253 constituencies or 309 depending on the calculation.

Either way, this is astonishing stuff that will terrify Labour. So expect the attacks on Reform to ramp up in a huge way.

We don’t just have to rely on polls to see what’s going on, either.

Yesterday a number of local by-elections saw strong Reform performances across the board.

A by-election in the Clacton constituency saw Reform gain a seat from the Conservatives, going from nowhere to 45%. An endorsement of the local MP!

Reform also gained two seats from Labour in Kent in another stunning night.

What a coincidence that some Council elections due to take place on 1st May across England have now been cancelled.

They can run, but they can’t hide.

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