Reform Is Happening

Farage Government now increasingly likely.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Sweeping change is well on the way. And it’s badly needed.

Labour talked a lot about change before the last election.

In reality we’ve got another Government happy to whack up taxes, preside over insane levels of immigration and that allows hundreds of young men to cross from France to England illegally on a daily basis.

The British people do not like what they are seeing. Immigration has now overtaken the economy as the number one issue for voters.

The extent to which Labour, and Keir Starmer personally, have seen their support plummet marks a decline played out in record time.

What has ‘smash the gangs’ Starmer delivered on stopping the boats?

As Migration Watch report:

“Closing in on 18,500 - that’s 50% ahead of the same time in 2024, and 2022 - the year of the most crossings. Seriously scary.”

And so a party that secured a big majority has drifted and the backlash is well underway.

As for the Conservatives? Well Kemi Badenoch is leading the Tories towards complete irrelevance.

In most of the local by-elections results we’ve seen dotted around the country, the Conservative vote share remains in decline.

That’s bad news for a party that should now be recovering support if it has any hope of being relevant again.

In fact the latest mega polls just released show that not only are the Tories no longer the main opposition to Labour, they face a fight to remain even the third biggest party in the next Parliament.

The momentum is in one direction: with Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.

A seismic shift is happening. Right now. On a huge scale. Everywhere.

Two big pieces of research show the extent of what we’re now seeing.

Firstly, Electoral Calculus have conducted research with a sample of over 5,000 voters. The findings are pretty incredible:

“The poll puts Reform UK on 31pc, ahead of Labour on 22pc and the Conservatives trailing on 19pc.

“In terms of the number of seats won, Reform are predicted to win an outright majority with 377 seats (104 seat majority), with Labour winning 118 seats and the Liberal Democrats winning 69.”

And as for what this would mean:

“This would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances.

“Even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number Ten.”

You would also see many senior Labour and Tory figures lose their seats to Reform:

“The following Labour cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats (all to Reform) under our calculations:

“Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Pat McFadden, Wes Streeting, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John Healey, Heidi Alexander, Hilary Benn, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, Lucy Powell.

“And the following prominent Conservatives are also at risk (to Reform unless indicated):

“James Cleverly, Iain Duncan Smith, Mel Stride, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt (to LIB), Oliver Dowden, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel.”

As Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus underlines:

"This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon.

“The 'big two' established parties now only command the support of 41pc of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.

“If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform.

“As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front."

That is an astonishing shift since the General Election. And this isn’t one outlier of a poll.

Because YouGov have also just released their mega MRP poll which finds the following as things stand:

“If an election were held tomorrow, the central projection from our MRP estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, falling to 178 seats, but in doing so become second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest force.

“According to our data and models, Nigel Farage’s party would come out of an election with 271 seats, an enormous improvement on their 2024 total of five, placing the party close to government.”

As for the Tories? It ain’t looking good:

“The Conservatives would be reduced even further from their poor 2024 result – already the worst ever for the party – falling to a mere 46 seats, putting them fourth behind the Liberal Democrats.”

The extent to which both Labour and the Conservatives are in decline is quite remarkable. Their domination of British politics is coming to an end:

“As well as winning just 224 seats between them in the central projection, the two traditional powerhouse parties of British politics, Labour and the Conservatives, would win a combined vote share of just 41%, down from 59% last year.

“That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

And this is a trend that is truly sweeping the entire country, as YouGov make clear:

“Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.

“In terms of seat totals, Reform UK would be the largest party in each of the East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, Wales, West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber under our central estimate, as well as being tied with Labour in the North West.”

Yes, a while to go yet before the next General Election.

But the Labour vs. Reform battle has already begun.

The challenge for Reform is to maintain momentum of course, and also put forward a credible program for Government.

Fundamentally, rather than vague platitudes, Reform should make a number of specific, quickly deliverable policy pledges that are a break from the Tory/Labour approach of empty words and little action.

Voters in this country want a Government that puts our people first, isn’t afraid to make radical changes and that crucially, follows through on promises made.

If the election was being held today, we would likely have a Reform Government with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister.

This prospect is now very real indeed. Bring it on, I say.

Thanks so much for reading! If you’d like to support this newsletter and my work then please consider becoming a paid supporter. Cheers, Michael