Reform Doubles As Tories Set Date

Farage's membership surges whilst Sunak prepares departure.

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Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Can Reform UK overtake the Conservatives and establish themselves as the main challenger to Labour by the next General Election?

Until recently this prospect would have been outright dismissed. Now? Not so much.

There was crossover during the course of the General Election campaign where polls had both parties neck-and-neck and sometimes Reform even ahead.

The job for whoever takes over as Conservative Leader from here will be to ensure that Reform does not overtake them permanently. That will be easier said than done.

Nigel Farage will clearly be aiming to build upon the 5 seats Reform won at this election. Remember that the Liberal Democrats, with fewer votes, managed to jump from 11 seats in 2019 to 72 this time round. So it can be done.

Certainly there is much to oppose already from this Labour Government. Reform Deputy Leader Richard Tice recently summarised that:

“Week 2 of Labour: Rioting in London and Leeds. Police in retreat. Prisoners being freed early. Over 1,000 illegal migrants crossed Channel & 5 sadly dead. #Starmergeddon”

As I covered in my previous article, Keir Starmer’s pledge that the UK will never leave the ECHR under Labour is a big mistake.

Already Labour appear to have no answers when it comes to stopping the huge numbers of people crossing from France to England on boats.

It would therefore seem logical to me that the Conservatives would turn to someone like Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick who have both demanded far tougher action on illegal migration as well as a curb on legal numbers too.

However it still seems few lessons have been learnt by Conservative MPs - whilst Reform has recently announced a massive surge in support.

This all comes just as the Tories have revealed their plan moving forward. If this falls flat then they are in huge trouble.