Record Day
Hello all and welcome back to Heaver News! I trust you are all fine and dandy, able to enjoy some of this glorious sunshine.
As ever thank you for reading Heaver News and a particular cheers to paid supporters, including Simon. Welcome!
My last post reflected on the scale of the potential challenge the Conservatives face.
Reform UK now hitting 20% with Leavers and 2019 Tory voters is significant and paid subscriber RW52’s comment was pretty clear:
“Great signs from the polls and that's with Reform UK not even trying. Sunak is doing it for us with all his ɓad decisions.”
Once again we come back to the Prime Minister’s ‘stop the boats’ pledge which lies in complete tatters.
The General Election really isn’t that far away now but sadly the boats from France continue to cross in huge numbers.
In fact Saturday was the record for illegal immigration in 2023, with 872 people crossing on 15 boats in a single day.
Oh and the following day another 113 people also crossed on two more boats.
So that’s over 21,000 people who have crossed so far this year despite Sunak’s pledge.
And as ever I must point out the barmy situation that sees a Conservative Government refusing to leave ECHR despite the Home Secretary having advocated doing so.
Have the Government given up? What are they waiting for before they significantly change their approach?
Making the ECHR a key plank of their next election campaign isn’t good enough.
The Government still just about has enough time to change course - but I’m rapidly losing faith in them doing so.
Meanwhile Redfield and Wilton find that Labour Leader Keir Starmer’s poll lead over PM Sunak has been extended once more.
In a head-to-head best PM question, Starmer now has a commanding 17-point lead (46% to 29%).
That ties the largest ever lead the polling firm have recorded in a Starmer vs. Sunak face-off.
So what is the Conservative plan to turn it around? I still don’t see it.
Incredibly telling that when voters are asked who they would prefer as PM out of recent Conservative Leaders, Boris Johnson still comes out on top.
In a finding that will likely bamboozle Remainstream media, Johnson is still preferred to the likes of David Cameron, Theresa May or Rishi Sunak.
BMG Research I guess shows that many who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 would still prefer Boris to what they’ve got now.
I doubt many of them will vote for the Conservatives again next year.
Despite (or perhaps partly due to) all the noise surrounding Donald Trump in America, his commanding lead amongst Republican voters is still utterly resounding.
Trump dominates the field on 59% in the primary race, with Ron DeSantis a distant second on only 13%.
Clearly Trump not attending the first televised debate had zero impact on the contest as he opted for a Tucker Carlson interview on X/Twitter instead.
Another example of how the dynamics of media are shifting.
French President Emmanuel Macron is desperately trying to move beyond the political gridlock in his country.
Recently Macron hosted party leaders for a grand meeting and there has been much speculation that a multi-question referendum could be on the way.
There is significant pressure from French conservatives and Marine Le Pen’s party for a referendum on immigration which is looking increasingly likely.
This comes after the Polish Government announced they would be holding a referendum on the same day as this year’s Polish Election, with one of the questions relating to the EU Migration and Asylum Pact.
The Brexit referendum was the start of a European trend it seems!
Even if Sunak says he'll put leaving the ECHR in the manifesto I won't believe him,that's how far everything has got in our politics. I think the Reform Party is waiting for the right time and for Nigel Farage to finish his other commitments .
Quite a long time before the next GE.
As we have seen with the rise in the right in Europe...it has been very quick ?
Boris Johnson has a mandate from the country, unlike Sunak. I'd have him back in a heartbeat. I think the Conservatives would have a chance then.