Nigel Is Overtaking Sunak

Reform could emerge as the main challenger to Labour.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Yes, it’s happening. The Conservative Party could soon be reduced to the third party behind both Labour and Reform UK.

The decision by Rishi Sunak and his allies to call an early General Election was clearly heavily influenced by a desire to sideline Nigel Farage.

By going early, the gamble from the Tories was that Nigel wouldn’t be involved and certainly wouldn’t stand.

At first it appeared to work. Caught by surprise, Farage was not going to stand as a candidate but he would still tour the country campaigning for Reform.

But he just couldn’t sit this one out. And so the Sunak gamble backfired on an epic scale.

It hasn’t been discussed as much but not only is Nigel Farage now leading Reform UK. Not only is he standing as a candidate in Clacton, with a very good chance of being elected. He’s vowed to return to the party political frontline for at least the next five years. That is huge.

Many have speculated as to what this could now mean in terms of the General Election. Some projections have already reduced the Conservatives to maybe 100, perhaps even only 70 MPs.

There is now the very real prospect that the actual number could be even lower than that - if Reform can overtake the Conservatives in the national polls, building momentum and emerging as the main challenger to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

As paid subscriber Lia rightly commented on my previous article:

“Expect a rash of promises from the Conservative Party promising us everything they should have done during their 14 years in power.”

Already those who had written off the prospects of Reform winning any seats whatsoever are looking a bit silly. YouGov already now say the party could win up to four seats.

Survation’s recent mega poll has 3 Reform MPs being elected. So already the idea that Reform won’t win a single seat is looking out of touch.

As for the prospect of Reform UK actually securing more votes nationally than the Conservatives? Well consider this: one poll yesterday had both parties level in terms of support. This is a huge moment.