Nigel Farage Westminster Breakthrough?
A bombshell poll has shaken things up again.
Good morning all, I hope you are well.
I’m not sure what happened with the previous newsletter that went out on Thursday, but if you didn’t receive it you can read it here as I analysed the ‘Farage Factor’.
I highlighted the fact that if Farage led Reform, research shows the party would rise to 30% of Leavers backing it along with 29% of 2019 Tories switching to Reform next time round.
Of course the party faces an immediate test in the Wellingborough by-election, where Ben Habib is standing. Reform need to try and score a breakthrough result there.
But when it comes to the prospect of Farage himself coming back into frontline politics, a major poll this weekend has shaken things up again.
Of course the hopelessly outdated First Past The Post voting system means you can secure millions of votes up and down the country - but win zero seats. It is absurd.
When proportional representation is in play, Farage has won a national election twice, with two different political parties at the European Elections.
Now a poll out this weekend shows that in at least one constituency (and there may be many more), Farage could win and get elected as an MP.
A Survation poll commissioned by Arron Banks has found that in Clacton, Farage is on 37% support with a 10-point lead over the Conservative MP there.
As Arron Banks told The Telegraph:
“Nigel Farage has often complained that the ‘First Past The Post’ system makes it impossible to compete with the two main parties and, despite stunning success with both UKIP and the Brexit Party that changed the course of history, he has failed to break into the Westminster cartel.
“The remarkable poll in The Telegraph shows that the seat of Clacton might be about to change that dynamic.”
And responding to this research, Farage told The Times:
“I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger.
“This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before.”
The rise of Reform has already rattled many in Westminster, worried about the potential impact of the party.
Richard Tice is still pledging to stand Reform candidates everywhere - and the party is now hitting 10% or more in most polls.
If Reform had already disturbed the establishment, the prospect of a Farage return and Westminster breakthrough will absolutely petrify them.
Heaver News paid subscribers - Please comment with your thoughts on this below and I’ll include your reactions in the next newsletter.
I agree, there are interesting times ahead. The Tories will make more and more mistakes with the inept and corrupt people they have and Starmer has to show his hand in the near future.
Farage/Tice/Reform ANYONE would win big if they stopped faffing about and got organised with their media/communications strategy AND if Tice appointed a highly visible, strong team of spokespeople on every key policy area and stopped looking like a one man band. Reform MUST HAVE an Economics Spokesman, tearing the LibLabCon to pieces in TV studios and village halls up and down the country. Reform MUST HAVE an Energy Spokesman tearing Nut Zero to pieces before we get power cuts and riots. And so on to Immigration/Integration, Health, Crime, Education (what education you ask?) Defence (what defence?), Reform MUST have a spokesman/woman calling out the corrosive, poisonous Marxist Gender nonsense being spewed by the LibLabCon. Someone needs to call out the Bilderbergers, COP28 fools, Common Purpose, C40 Cities, WEF and WHO for being UNELECTED, UNDEMOCRATIC useful idiots for China. And someone needs to kill dead the crooked Civil Service plot to bring in a China surveillance CBDC.