Next Big Election Battle

Reform name target - as Tories tussle for the leadership.

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Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

According to YouGov’s latest poll of Conservative members, Kemi Badenoch is currently the favourite choice to take over as Tory Leader.

Of course under the Conservative leadership rules, it is MPs who control the process first, with members only being given a shortlist of two contenders.

Just what state will the new Leader find their party in?

Well with a greatly reduced number of MPs of course, but signs that Reform are close to or already are overtaking the party.

We had another electoral indication of that this week.

A local by-election up in Scotland is further evidence that the Tories face the very real prospect of being overtaken completely by Reform UK.

With a big batch of local elections next May, this result was pretty startling.