Mixed Bag
Tories suffer by-election defeats but Labour stopped as well.
Good morning and welcome back to Heaver News. I hope you have all had a nice week.
It’s fair to say yesterday’s trio of by-elections were a mixed bag: one Labour gain, one LibDem gain and one surprise Conservative hold.
Selby and Ainsty saw a huge swing to Labour, with the Tories losing in a constituency that saw them get over 60% of the vote at the last General Election, a 20,000+ majority totally wiped out.
That should worry many Conservative MPs as to where the next election could be headed for many of them.
Similarly a majority at the last election of over 19,000 in Somerton and Frome turned into a Liberal Democrat gain, with the LibDems surging to over 50% of the vote in that by-election.
All pretty devastating for the Tories. Though the third by-election saw a decidedly different outcome.
Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip saw the Tories narrowly hold on in what amounts to a blow for Labour.
The result also highlights the growing backlash against London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ agenda. Tory candidate and Councillor Steve Tuckwell’s message was blatantly clear:
“With polling stations only open for a couple more hours, be sure to get out and vote.
“Together we can use this by-election to show Sadiq Khan he cannot expand ULEZ into Hillingdon.”
And it worked. The Conservatives managed to retain the seat with a very slim 495 vote majority.
Rishi Sunak’s Government will try and sell that as hope for the Conservative Party’s prospects of course.
But that was a vote against Mayor Khan’s agenda in London. Outside of London, results for the Tories were absolutely appalling.
The elections have also highlighted how hard it is for new parties to breakthrough, with Reform and Reclaim both struggling to make a major impact.
I still think this all points to the next Government being led by Labour - but propped up by the LibDems and perhaps the Greens and SNP as well.
Some worrying results for the Tories - but Labour are not running away with the next election quite yet.
Nigel Farage’s crusade against disgraceful debanking overreach has done a great service for the country and ordinary folk.
The way he has been treated is shocking and it has been encouraging to see even the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently make clear that:
“No one should be barred from using basic services for their political views. Free speech is the cornerstone of our democracy.”
Outside of increasingly bonkers Twitter obsessives, the silent majority of people in this country agree.
When YouGov recently asked:
“Should banks be allowed to remove customers who have personal or political beliefs that don't align with the bank's values?”
They found just 15% of people think banks should be allowed to take such action, with a whopping 62% saying they should not.
That includes 76% of Conservative voters and a majority (53%) of Labour voters too.
Once again Farage has spoken out on behalf of the decent fair-minded mainstream of this country.
I think Reform still haven't really got the message that you have to get out and about amongst the people to get yourself known. It's too easy for them to send me an email occasionally telling me about what's going on in Bedfordshire, nowhere near me. Or for Richard to appear once a week on Talk TV and every so often on his colleagues shows. I'm still meeting people who have never heard of them, at this stage it's not on. Also, Reclaim need to join Reform so as not to split the vote.
Shame Sunak got a bit of a reprieve. Three lost could have ousted him. Starmer's Private Pike won't know what's hit him, he'll be debagged and out with the Kiwi shoe polish and not all by Tories either.
Talking of ousting, Tice should retire to the back office and get his Isobel, Alex Phillips and Belinda de Lucy out on the warpath. Oh to be a fly on the wall of a Farage, Boris and JRM's meeting 'somewhere outside London.' The iron's getting hot, the public are starting to do the Police's job on JSO, Coutts have made fools of themselves and the BBC as well. Come on Nigel. Strike.