Leave Or Remain?

Reform have already reshaped the conversation.

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Well two names have joined the fray to become Conservative Leader. Neither is a surprise. Both Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick were long rumoured candidates.

In what will be a lengthy leadership contest running until November, the contenders will of course each be seeking to carve out a distinctive appeal.

Other announced contenders include James Cleverly and Mel Stride. All will be hoping to win over enough Tory MPs to then make it to the two-person shortlist for Conservative members to vote on.

The actual current bookies’ favourite hasn’t yet declared. That is Kemi Badenoch.

Nor has Suella Braverman formally declared as I write this - even as her yet-to-be-launched campaign has been slammed in various anonymous briefings.

Of course a huge difference and factor in this Conservative leadership campaign is the presence of Reform UK in the House of Commons.

Stuart Mitchell/IncMonocle

Nigel Farage looms large over this contest. Don’t forget, the Tories lost far more voters to Reform at the election than to Labour and the Liberal Democrats combined.

That certainly isn’t to say all Reformers could automatically be transferred to the Conservatives if Reform didn’t exist.

The research actually shows that if Reform UK didn’t stand, most who backed the party still wouldn’t have gone out and voted Conservative.

But the trouble for the Tories now is grandstanding on issues with no decisiveness, as they try and placate the various factions within the badly split party, will be a stark contrast to a smaller but much more united Reform.

And I think the issue that the announced Conservative leadership campaigns are focusing on tells us something very clearly: that the Tories realise just how big a force Nigel Farage’s Reform now are - and can yet become.