Last Minute Election Shift

Labour voters now switching to Reform.

There has been a last minute shift that points to a big political battle we’re about to see play out.

Before I get to that though, a quick heads up that I’ll be hosting an Election Night Chat here on Substack for paid subscribers.

To join in the discussion through the night, upgrade to become a paid supporter and download the Substack app. I look forward to chatting to you all as the results roll in.

As election day fast approaches, there has been a notable shift.

We know that Labour’s lead has remained fairly steady through the course of this campaign.

But the entry of Nigel Farage into the election, leading Reform, is now eating into some of Labour’s support.

That shouldn’t be surprising. There is definitely a good chunk of Labour’s support that was intending to back them purely to kick the Tories out.

There is some evidence that this group may be switching to Reform as the election approaches.

The latest JL Partners poll shows, far from the Tories squeezing Reform’s support, the Conservatives down slightly and Reform up a bit.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Labour’s support is down a bit in this poll as well - and this appears to be due to direct switching.

As James Johnson has explained:

“Labour to Reform switchers on the rise.

“Reform UK is now taking 7% of the Labour 2019 vote, a statistically significant increase from 3% last week.”

Of course we still expect a big Labour majority. But this all hints at what could come in the longer term.

The Labour Party has virtually nothing to say about record-high levels of legal immigration, is already looking to cosy up to the European Union, has an utterly feeble outlook on small boats and their woke agenda in Government will be hugely toxic.

So a Farage-led Reform breakthrough, establishing itself as the main opposition to Labour, is likely to see many more Labour to Reform switchers moving forward as Keir Starmer’s agenda unravels.

We’re now seeing the start of this before the election. And I suspect much more will be to come over the next few years.