Labour Challenged By Reform

Lee Anderson symbolises a new realignment.

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Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

There was a time when Lee Anderson symbolised the Conservative electoral realignment that took place in 2019. 

The plain-speaking Ashfield MP has never been popular with London-based establishment columnists - but I suspect he’d be pretty worried if he was.

But back in the real world with voters, Anderson was evidence of the new working class support base that backed the Tories and propelled them to winning seats that used to be diehard Labour.

Indeed the likes of Rishi Sunak clearly understood Anderson’s appeal, promoting him to become Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.

If the Tories had actually listened to their voters, Anderson and the likes of Suella Braverman, the Conservative Government could have had great success. 

But voters were instead emphatically ignored - 91% of Conservative voters think immigration over the past decade has been too high, for instance. 

Whilst Anderson and Braverman were sidelined, one suspended and the other sacked as Home Secretary when they should have been at the forefront of the Tory Government.

So just as Lee Anderson once symbolised the working class shift to the Tories, his defection to Reform UK was just as critical a moment. 

The stuck up commentariat and Twitter-obsessed bores mocked his chances of re-election in Ashfield. Further evidence that social media is a bubble rarely worth listening to. 

It is certainly not easy to win under First Past The Post under the banner of a new party. 

But the voters of Ashfield gave a ringing endorsement of Anderson’s defection, with over 42% of the vote compared to 29% for Labour and the Conservatives reduced to an embarrassing 8%.

That’s why Lee Anderson’s visit to Wales this week gives insight to the long-term challenge Reform now poses to Labour.

As the House of Commons library research recently revealed:

“Reform came second place in 98 constituencies. 

“In 89 of these cases, it was second to Labour. 60 of these were in the north of England and 13 were in Wales.”

Of course the next Conservative Leader, whoever he or she is, will attempt to claim that their party is the natural challenger to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

The issue for the Tories now is that voters are not stupid - and they can see for themselves the evidence that in scores of seats it was Reform, not the Conservatives, who came closest to toppling Labour.

In Wales, Llanelli was a clear example of this with Labour’s majority squeezed down to just 1,504 votes, with Reform the clear second place challenger on 27.6% in the constituency. 

Similarly in Torfaen, it was Reform who came closest to beating Labour. And there were signs this week of Reform UK building locally in the area.

Alongside a photo of the Reform MP with the party’s three newest Councillors, Lee Anderson wrote:

“Historical Event. This morning I landed in Wales to see Independent Councillors Slade, Thomas and O'Connell of Torfaen Borough Council join Reform UK. 

“Wales needs Reform UK and we are coming to get rid of Labour.”

And as the new Leader of Reform UK Wales in Torfaen, Cllr David Thomas, put it:

“Well, here goes. . After much careful thought and consideration, we are today joining Reform UK. 

“We’re humbled to be Llantarnam Councillors, proud to serve our electorate! 

“We’ve decided to join Reform UK Wales who share our vision of a new way of politics, and ultimately help us achieve better outcomes for our residents at local and national government. 

“We will always stand up for the people of Llantarnam and always put the people before any party. 

“Big thank you to Lee Anderson for coming down and celebrating our day.”

With big County Council elections taking place May next year, Reform’s challenge will be to breakthrough in many more areas and demonstrate that the party is the main challenger to Labour now. 

The conversation has moved on from voting the Tories out. Are many who voted Labour seriously happy with Starmer’s woke, EU alignment, weak border agenda? 

Or do many working class voters actually identify much more with the values of Ashfield’s Reform MP?