Huge Change Ahead

Not long to go!

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Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

One week to go.

Having been written off from winning any seats at all to a new poll finding Reform could win more than a dozen pretty much sums this General Election up.

The Farage factor is real - turning this contest on its head as Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak desperately try to present it as only a Labour vs. Conservative race.

It was great to read this comment from paid subscriber Jane in response to my previous article who gave a taste of a Reform event:

“I was at the Reform summer rally in Stafford yesterday.

“There were 500+ there. Main speakers were Ben Habib, Ann Widdecombe and Lee Anderson. There was a very enthusiastic audience.

“Even without Nigel it felt reminiscent of Leave and Brexit Party rallies. People are engaged in politics again.

“We feel like we have voices saying what we think. Great to see some young people there in their teens and twenties and asking questions too.”

I suspect that the rise of Reform during this campaign will boost enthusiasm and turnout next week.

What could have boosted interest in the TV debates would have been if Nigel Farage had been included either in a head-to-head with Sunak or Starmer, likewise a three-way debate.

That would have seemed fair and representative given Reform have overtaken the Tories in various national polls now.

Instead it was yet another Starmer vs. Sunak debate last night that the public scored as a 50-50 score draw.

Meanwhile, Electoral Calculus yesterday gave one of the most dramatic findings of the entire campaign, especially considering we are now just a week out from voting day.

Rather than a Conservative recovery, they find Rishi Sunak leading his party to a total wipeout, down to only 60 MPs.

They would actually be overtaken by the Liberal Democrats who would have 71 MPs, with a massive Labour majority on 450 seats.

But this research also produced the highest number of seats for Reform UK that we’ve seen in any poll: 18 seats, including Nigel Farage himself winning.

These are all astonishing figures - and underline once again how absurd First Past The Post is.

On this basis, Reform would receive many more votes than the LibDems but far fewer seats. I expect electoral reform to surge higher up the agenda after this election.

As for Sunak himself, well Conservative MPs got what they wanted. Johnson ousted, Truss gone, and a Tory Leader who is now not even certain of winning his own seat.