Could It Happen?

A huge week for Reform lies ahead.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

The rumblings have begun.

I’ve long thought that Robert Jenrick is more likely to lead the Conservatives into the next General Election than current Leader Kemi Badenoch is.

The Tories, hammered at the last election, remain in decline.

To be fair Badenoch’s job is a very tough one. The post of Conservative Party Leader would be tricky for anyone right now.

Why should the public believe a word they say on anything? Especially when much of what they say now is the opposite of what they did in power. When they had the chance, they blew it.

And so Alex Wickham’s insight into current Tory thinking highlights much of what I suspected.

In short, Conservative MPs already think there may be a leadership challenge, the party is in crisis and Jenrick is the frontrunner to replace Badenoch in the top job.

Why? Because Reform have clearly emerged as the main opposition to Starmer’s Labour Government, both in terms of popularity and effectiveness.

Many Conservative voters are clearly impressed with Reform’s performance. As Scarlett Maguire has highlighted:

“1 in 4 (26%) Con 24 voters think Reform is doing a better job of holding government to account.

“Half (47%) of Con 24 voters think Farage is doing a good job as Reform Leader - more than say the same of Kemi.”

We’ve already seen this play out in the national polls, where Reform have had up to an 8-point lead over both Labour and the Tories.

But this week many will get to vote and Reform’s rise will be tested at the ballot box.

Despite some cancellations, a host of Council elections are still going ahead and there is a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby.

It’s a very safe Labour seat and a straight fight between Keir Starmer’s party and Nigel Farage’s Reform.

But also taking place are a number of Mayoral elections which could see some very dramatic results.

Overall, the research paints a clear picture: that Reform are ahead of the Conservatives in most of the country, and the big battle is between Labour and Reform.

For instance, YouGov’s research for the Greater Lincolnshire Mayoral race has Reform leading on 40%, 15 points ahead of the Conservatives.

In the Hull and East Yorkshire election Reform are ahead on 35% with the Liberal Democrats second on 21%. Labour are third on 20% and the Tories fourth with 15%.

Other research also hints at a potential Reform win in Doncaster, where again it is Farage’s party vs. Labour with the Tories in third.

These would be absolutely massive Reform breakthroughs and confirm that the party’s spectacular rise in the polls is backed up on the ground.

It would underline how talk of a Reform Government is a very realistic prospect indeed as the party continues to grow and build.

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That contrasts to Labour and the Conservatives who have both undoubtedly seen their support decline since the last General Election.

The results this week therefore will have big ramifications and help set the political mood music for the months and years ahead.

It may even trigger yet another Tory leadership election sooner rather than later.