Conference Split, Polish Vote & Trump Wins

The Conservative Conference actually sums up where the party now is.

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Meanwhile the Conservative Conference has been going on, with the most interesting action taking place outside of the official event.

Prominent Conservative Lord Cruddas made an extraordinary intervention at the Conservative Democratic Organisation’s event, calling on donors to stop funding the party until members were empowered again.

The CDO itself is fighting for grassroot Conservatives to stop being frozen out of having a meaningful say, after Boris Johnson was forced out and then Rishi Sunak replaced members-choice Liz Truss.

Certainly when it comes to attendance in the main hall of the Tory Conference, numbers seem to be have been pretty thin in the ground. Liz Truss attracted much more of a buzz on the sidelines with her call for tax cuts.

Nigel Farage has caused a stir too, attending the Conservative Conference and appearing on GB News. His assessment of the Lord Cruddas intervention was:

“Open rebellion at the Conservative Democratic Organisation dinner where Lord Cruddas urges Tory donors to stop funding the Conservatives until there is change. Very strong stuff.”

Of course the biggest problem for Rishi Sunak is his lack of grassroots support from Tory members or indeed voters.

Many who voted Conservative for the first time ever in 2019 to ‘get Brexit done’ seem to be have been completely sidelined by internal Tory politics.

It would have been a far better idea for Boris Johnson or Liz Truss to have gone back to the country with a snap election to try and secure a fresh mandate.

I think it will be even harder for Sunak by the time he goes for a rumoured October 2024 Election. I would go earlier if I was him - there are elections taking place next May anyway.

But what exactly is the Sunak vision? We’ve seen a watering down of some crazier aspects of the Net Zero agenda that has already boosted the Tories slightly in the polls.

But the overall vision still seems to be lacking considerably. Sunak’s pledge to stop the boats has been an embarrassment for the Government given the crossings have now hit 25,000 in 2023 alone so far.

The faffing around over the ECHR sums it up: a Conservative Government with a big majority spending months and years contemplating what to do, rather than just making a decision and implementing change.

And so there is little surprise that those making interventions are now being viewed as future Conservative leadership contenders after a 2024 Tory defeat.

Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch have both been speaking out and Suella Braverman’s recent speech actually has massive public support.

But before another Conservative leadership election takes place, can Sunak turn things around? The evidence from the mild poll bounce after his Net Zero change suggests more actual conservative policies and actions are the only route to victory for him.

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Poland’s Election on 15th October is making some in Brussels nervous. And they admit it.

EU officials speaking to the Financial Times recently stated that they are spooked that an increasingly Eurosceptic governing Law and Justice party are going to win another five years in charge.

This is the party that has called on a multi-question referendum to take place on the same day as the election, including a vote on the EU’s migration plan that the Polish Government oppose.

A senior EU official summed up the Eurocrat outlook on this Polish Election:

“So much hinges on what happens in Warsaw. And the signs right now are not good.”

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Donald Trump continues to defy convention. You're shocked, I know.

When Republican voters were recently asked who was the real winner of the second televised debate, Trump was the top choice on 27%.

The only thing is, Trump didn’t even appear on stage.

In fact with Trump still backed by over 50% of Republican voters in the US polls, he’s not appeared on the debate stage yet this time round.

Yet JL Partners found him picked as the real winner of the debate, with Vivek Ramaswamy the most popular debate winner amongst the candidates who actually took part.

Fair to say Trump’s Republican rivals still haven’t found a way to get close to him in this contest.