Burnham Wins. Snap Election Next?

We may soon have a new Prime Minister.

Well, Andy Burnham has done it.

The Greater Manchester Mayor has won the Makerfield by-election. And this will now have huge consequences for the country.

Burnham scored close to 55% of the vote, with Reform UK second on 34% and Restore Britain third on just under 7%.

Keir Starmer meanwhile seems increasingly delusional. Does he really believe that he can seriously remain as Prime Minister when so many Labour MPs have now given up on him?

Regardless of what he says, Starmer’s premiership surely won’t last much longer.

The indications are that Burnham is backed by Labour MPs to the extent that there may be a coronation for the new Labour Leader and Prime Minister, without even a leadership contest.

That then may lead to the traditional honeymoon ‘poll bounce’ for Labour. In which case, watch out for a potential snap General Election.

But something that has gone slightly under the radar is Burnham’s popularity overall across the country as greater scrutiny has been applied.

As YouGov have revealed:

“In earlier polls in this series, Andy Burnham achieved a positive net favourability rating (+9 at its peak).

“However, his popularity declined starting from the middle of May – the period that encompassed the Labour Party revolt against Keir Starmer that included Wes Streeting’s resignation and Josh Simons stepping down in Makerfield, triggering the by-election that Andy Burnham is likely to win.

“As a result, Burnham now takes a net favourability rating of -11 in our latest poll: 30% of Britons like the would-be PM, versus 41% who dislike him.”

Interestingly, Burnham has also seen a decline in support from Labour voters:

“Burnham’s favourability has similarly taken a knock among those who backed the Labour Party in 2024.

“While the number of Labour voters with a positive view of Burnham has remained largely consistent, the number with a negative rating has risen by eight points to 22%.”

Also, just a note on the Conservatives whose terminal decline across swathes of the country continues.

In 2019, the Tories scored 34% of the vote in Makerfield. Yesterday they were down to just 2%.

It sets up the next election as a very clear choice: what is likely to be a Burnham-led Labour versus Nigel Farage’s Reform.