Brussels Rattled, Farage Wipeout & Truss Manifesto

Not long now until the next PM is confirmed!

Hello and welcome back to my newsletter. I am delighted that so many of you have subscribed already and I should have some major news relating to the future of this newsletter next week. I am enormously excited and thank you once again for your support.

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Result Day

After what has felt like a pretty drawn-out leadership contest, Monday is the day that we will finally find out who the next Prime Minister will be.

12:30 on Monday afternoon is when the results of the election will be revealed. Having enjoyed huge poll leads throughout the contest it does feel that most are already looking ahead to a Truss Government.

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EU Nerves Over PM Truss

Those in Brussels are certainly nervous about the prospect of Liz Truss becoming the next Prime Minister. And that’s even before she brings back Lord Frost as Brexit Minister, as I would like to see!

Truss has led the push for the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill of course, the UK’s overdue unilateral action as the EU refuse to renegotiate the Protocol.

On top of that, rumours persist that Truss could look to trigger Article 16 within days of becoming PM.

Politics Home report of a twitchy EU bracing for a “very aggressive narrative” from a Truss Government.

Which is ironic given it is EU politicians who have already been talking about trade sanctions against the UK, as I recently highlighted.

The reason Frost is liked by Leavers and loathed by Brussels is because he took a firm line when it came to UK-EU relations. Let’s hope the next PM does the same.

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Farage’s 1997 Warning

Nigel Farage meanwhile isn’t pulling any punches, declaring in a Telegraph interview that the Conservatives could be heading for a 1997-style wipeout - and that they deserve it.

Brexiteer frustration is clear to see: in recent polls only around half of Leavers currently intend to vote Conservative next time round.

In a development that remains relatively under the radar, around 10% of Brexiteers currently intend to vote for Reform UK according to the most recent polling I have seen.

On the current trajectory the Tories will lose the next election heavily unless they can gain back the support of Leavers.

If the next Tory PM wants to win another majority here are my suggestions: cut net migration down to tens of thousands, leave ECHR, prioritise energy independence, open new grammar schools in deprived areas, axe the BBC Licence Fee now and slash taxes. Don’t just talk about it, do it!

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Truss Manifesto

As for what a Liz Truss Government will look to deliver? Politico have got something of a Truss Manifesto based on recent statements.

Commitments include expansion of the Rwanda scheme, ensuring the UK can’t be overruled by ECHR, removing the green energy levy from bills and a pledge against any new taxes.

There is also a commitment to scrape EU law off the statute book by the end of 2023, deregulation of industries and an emergency budget.

Do tell me in the poll below: if Truss delivers on her agenda, will you vote Conservative at the next General Election?

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Snap Election?

It may seem a little counter-intuitive given the large Conservative majority in Parliament, but there is something to be said for being bold and the next Conservative Leader calling an early election.

With the Fixed Term Parliaments Act gone, the next PM will have the power to call an election at a time pretty much of their choosing.

With Boris Johnson forced to resign without voters getting a say, British public opinion is now weighed in favour of an early election.

Expect to see more talk of this in the coming months. It is already front page news today for the Express.

General Election in early October 2023?