Badenoch-Braverman Cabinet, Truss Growing & Voters Defy Pundits

The next Conservative Government has big opportunities.

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Truss Is Growing Into Race

Liz Truss has consistently held a considerable poll lead over Rishi Sunak in this Conservative leadership race with those who now have a vote; Tory members.

The campaign has a way to go yet, with hustings all through August and then the result announced in September.

Rishi Sunak’s chance of winning is therefore based on him building momentum during the race and Truss losing steam as the contest goes on.

It must be said though that it is Liz Truss who appears to be growing into the contest. Not always the slickest public performer, she has already improved during some of the early events and delivered some polished, passionate performances.

On top of that it is she who is actually putting forward the sort of radical ideas the Conservative Government will need to deliver to win another election.

Just this weekend there is talk of Truss shaking up the Treasury and ending the absurd ban on new grammar schools.

Having gone into this leadership election with the lead, it is Truss who is building the momentum.

Get Badenoch And Braverman In Cabinet

Meanwhile Conservative supporters are clear: they want leadership contenders Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman in the next Leader’s Cabinet.

I am a big fan of Braverman who of course focused her leadership pitch on leaving the ECHR to get a grip on illegal migration. The next Prime Minister should listen to her and get that done.

Badenoch of course was shown to be leading every other candidate in a head-to-head had she got through to the final two.

Her popularity is reflected by YouGov finding an overwhelming 84% of Tory members want her to be given a job in the next Cabinet. Braverman isn’t too far behind, backed by two-thirds of Conservative members.

Fellow leadership contenders Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt also enjoy significant support from Conservative members. How many leadership candidates will end up being in the next PM’s Cabinet?

The preferences of Truss and Sunak supporters differs wildly. As YouGov point out:

Tory members who back Truss are far more likely to want her Cabinet to include Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and Boris Johnson.

Could you see Boris join both Badenoch and Braverman in a Truss Cabinet?

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Immigration Remains A Top Issue

We know some in mainstream media are desperate to completely ignore the issue of immigration.

But there is further evidence that this remains a top priority for voters and will be a major factor at the next election whether some pundits try to ignore it or not.

As Political Commentator Patrick O’Flynn notes:

Among 2019 Tory voters R&W polling has immigration as third most important issue, a slightly behind health. YouGov consistently has it as 2nd. Both results give the lie to the idea that immigration no longer has salience as a policy area.

He is referring to research carried out by Redfield and Wilton in recent days showing immigration as the third most important election issue for voters, behind only the economy and healthcare. For Conservative voters the issue of immigration is narrowly behind healthcare as a priority.

For British voters overall immigration is a bigger election issue right now than taxation, education, the environment, crime or transport.

If some journalists continue to dance around or ignore this issue, as we saw during the BBC’s PM Debate, it simply shows how out of touch they are with voters.

Both very high levels of legal net migration and record illegal migration have the potential to cost the Conservatives the next election if the next PM fails to get a grip.