Astonishing Reform Landslide

Yes, this could happen.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

The momentum continues to gather.

Some of the numbers we’ve seen in support of Reform UK are truly incredible.

These latest findings are completely off the scale. We’re talking about the biggest parliamentary majority in history.

In some ways it isn’t surprising.

Labour and the Tories have proven to govern in the exact same way: within the confines of the existing, failed system.

It means mass immigration, Net Zero green deindustralisation, an illegal boat invasion plus sky-high taxes on workers and businesses trying to get by.

This isn’t sustainable. It can’t go on. And I’m pretty sure it won’t be for much longer.

An Electoral Calculus mega poll shows where the country now is.

Reform have hit yet another record high, now on 36%. Nigel Farage’s party rising to 40% is on the cards.

The same mega poll, by comparison, puts Labour on 21% and the Tories on 15%.

We then get two scenarios: one that factors in large scale tactical voting and one that does not.

As it’s hard to calculate this exactly, I’m going to stick with the raw, non-tv scenario.

It would mean Reform UK winning a staggering 445 seats, with Labour down to 73.

This election would also mean the end of the Conservative Party. They would hold onto only 7 seats, just ahead of the Greens on 6.

We’re talking here about the demolition of the top teams for both legacy parties, as Electoral Calculus set out:

“The following Labour Cabinet Ministers are at risk of losing their seats (to Reform unless indicated) under our calculations:

“Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood (to Your Party), Ed Miliband, Pat McFadden, Wes Streeting (to Your Party), John Healey, Bridget Phillipson, Liz Kendall, Lisa Nandy, Hilary Benn, Douglas Alexander, Jonathan Reynolds

“And the following prominent Conservatives are also at risk (to Reform unless indicated):

“James Cleverly, Iain Duncan Smith, Mel Stride, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt (to LIB), David Davis, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel.”

Ahh I hear you say! This is extraordinary, but still some years off.

True. But there is a Welsh by-election taking place next week that underlines how much the dynamic has shifted.

The Caerphilly Senedd constituency in 2021 saw Reform score just 1.7% of the vote, with Labour winning easily on 46%.

Now? Well as polling firm Survation have revealed this morning:

“Exclusive Survation poll for Camlas, Wales’ largest public affairs company - shows a close contest between Reform (42%) and Plaid (38%) ahead of next week’s vote, signalling a major shift in the Welsh political landscape after 26 years of Labour dominance, as well as over a century of Westminster and Senedd control in Caerphilly.”

This by-election could certainly be a sign of what is to come next.