A Record Low

Rishi Sunak's leadership has delivered the worst Conservative poll result since the 1970s.

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Hello all and welcome back to another edition of Heaver News! I hope you are all well.

Earlier this week the very wise Dr. Rakib Ehsan wrote again for Heaver News, giving his assessment of Rishi Sunak’s speech on extremism.

Do check out that article if you haven’t yet read it - and consider upgrading to become a paid supporter of this newsletter if you’d like to see more guest posts.

As ever there were a range of comments from paid subscribers, including from Don who said:

“Thank you Dr Ehsan, well said, and the statement on the gap between rhetoric and effective policy is perfectly descriptive of the actions of left leaning politicians across the west.

“I see it in all countries, and even among ‘so-called’ conservatives like Sunak.”

Keith voiced his support for the sentiments of the article too:

“Excellent words if only you were in Government.”

No one can say we don’t have a range of perspectives in the comments section as this community continues to grow.

Here is what Zorro thinks following George Galloway’s victory in the Rochdale by-election:

“If I lived in Rochdale I'd have voted for George. As the article says the more secular Muslims are like most of us, they want a quiet life. Making enemies of them is the worst thing we can do.

“Starmer's dilemma. GG says he's fielding 60 Workers' Party candidates and is in cahoots with several Independents. I love it.

“Anything that keeps the quisling Starmer out of No 10.”

As ever I want to hear from you - become a paid subscriber, leave a comment and I may include your response in the next edition of this newsletter.

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There has been much speculation as to whether there will be an early May General Election.

There is definitely logic to it: a whole host of elections in this country are due to take place on 2nd May anyway.

If the Tories are thrashed, they are set to shed a large number of Councillors who the party will be relying on for their Westminster ground campaign.

Picking up morale just months later for a General Election will be tricky. This is no longer a party led by Boris Johnson who got elected as Mayor of London and won that chunky Westminster majority; Rishi Sunak couldn’t even convince Conservative members to back him over Liz Truss.

There was also the line of thought that going early in May could head off a leadership challenge against Sunak if the local results are as bad as some Tory MPs fear.

Stuart Mitchell/@IncMonocle

Sunak is lucky in that most Tory MPs now seem utterly determined to stick with him no matter how dire the by-election results or bleak national polls become. That wasn’t a luxury afforded to Johnson or Truss.

Yet it appears increasingly likely that Sunak and his allies are going to string this all out for as long as possible.

Yesterday’s budget wasn’t exactly earth-shattering. The tax burden is still astonishingly high - voters in this country will likely vote at the next General Election with taxes at their highest since the 1940s.

So what is the point of a Conservative Government that delivers high tax, high immigration and weak borders?

Of course Rishi Sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt argue that things would be even worse under a Labour Government.

But I’m struck by how consistently now you see even Tory MPs bemoaning - rather than defending - the state of the country.

The Tories should have listened to Suella Braverman instead of sacking her as Home Secretary. This was her review of the budget:

“Frozen income tax thresholds have led to millions of low and middle-income workers being dragged into paying higher tax.

“And unprecedented levels of low-wage, low-skilled migration are damaging the economy.

“The Government could have fixed both problems today but did not.”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement then from someone who is far more in touch with the feeling of Conservative voters than those in Downing Street.

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The disconnect is now at historic levels. Ipsos this week revealed research showing that public support for the Conservative Party has sunk to its lowest level since their research began in 1978.

As they set out:

“The Conservatives’ share of 20% is the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos in  our regular Political Monitor series, which has run since 1978.

“Previous Conservative low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23% in July 1997, shortly after Labour’s landslide win and 23 per cent in December 2022.”

And when it comes to Rishi Sunak personally:

“19% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (-1 from January) and 73% say they are dissatisfied (+7).

“His net rating of -54 is a record low for Mr Sunak.”

Yet the remarkable thing is that following that research, not a single Conservative MP declared it was now time for Sunak to go. That he isn’t delivering. That it isn’t working.

In fact only a handful of Tory MPs have ever publicly called for Sunak to be ousted.

Are they resigned to losing their seats? Believe that the PM can still turn it around? Perhaps they just regard it as absurd to push for yet another change of Leader.

Yet if the May elections play out as the polls are indicating right now, Conservatives are facing a real electoral wipeout.

As I’ve previously highlighted, this election would have been far tougher for the Tories than the one back in 2019 even if they were still led by Boris Johnson.

It is often overlooked that a critical element to the Tory Party’s emphatic win last time was the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in Conservative-held constituencies.

That was never going to be the case this time round, with Richard Tice having made a concrete, long-held pledge to stand Reform candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland.

So with the boats nowhere near being stopped, taxes high and borders weak, perhaps the Tory Party’s best chance could come after the May Election thrashing - if it is indeed as bad as seems likely.

One final drama, change and a snap election with a new Leader could be their last hope.

A long shot for sure - but the current Sunak-led path looks like a nailed-on pasting for the Conservatives.

Those who argue otherwise are ignoring the increasing weight of evidence that the Tory decline is hitting new lows.

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