This wasn’t supposed to happen, was it?

With Labour leading in the national polls and the first Burnham-Healey Budget having just been delivered, Reform have gained two Council seats this week including one from Labour.

Subscribe now

Labour have also gained one from Reform - by just two votes!

It confirms the volatile nature of British politics right now, as the country heads towards an early General Election.

Yes, I know that Andy Burnham has again been denying that there will be a snap vote next year.

But just look at that Budget: it failed to address anything fundamentally, as Britain goes broke.

Welfare spending is surging to even more unsustainable levels, some are forecasting household energy bills to rocket by 27% in January - and the Government’s response is a £100 payment to some people living in certain Council tax bands.

Meanwhile UK economic growth has been downgraded to a feeble 1% for 2027 with Government debt recently hitting £3 Trillion for the first time ever.

Yet the Burnham Government’s choice is to push back any tough decisions, kick the can down the road and talk about rejoining the European Union instead.

And we’re already beginning to see the backlash against Labour’s push to betray the Brexit vote.

Because on the very week of the Burnham Government’s first Budget, Reform gained a seat from Labour in Bassetlaw with close to 46% of the vote.

Whilst in Halton, Nigel Farage’s party gained a seat from the Liberal Democrats, with Labour in third.

Just to demonstrate the volatility of politics right now though, Labour gained a seat from Reform in Dudley by just two (2) votes.

In that same election the Tories took 317 votes and Restore 159.

Subscribe now

But despite the Labour poll leads and the mainstream media onslaught Reform is now facing, things clearly aren’t all going Burnham’s way.

His party and Government’s strategy continues to be to delay everything and kick the can down the road.

That can only last so long. And I still believe that it is taking us towards a snap vote that will not only determine the next Government, but whether we stay out of the EU or not.

It’s the rumour that just isn’t going away.

Even as Andy Burnham continues to deny that there will be an early election, we are reaching a fever pitch of speculation that such a snap vote will indeed take place.

Subscribe now

The Labour Government, with a massive majority, seem to be pushing everything back.

Big decisions ducked and promises made for the future as the country takes a financial battering now.

That leads us to a budget this week some are describing as ‘steady as she goes’ - though with a few surprises still expected.

Over the weekend we’ve seen what the Labour plan is under Burnham: EU open borders are back on the table.

What an insult to Brexit Britain. One that will backfire badly on Burnham and Co.

But there is now clear logic in the argument that everything by Labour is being lined up for the PM to call a snap vote.

This is what appears to now be happening.

Read more

The sad decline of the country continues.

Now the warnings of potential blackouts are coming thick and fast.

Subscribe now

How have we sunk so low?

There are claims that the public aren’t being told the truth about how close the country has already come to a complete energy crisis.

The Tory-Labour policy of Net Zero has clearly created serious problems and greatly weakened the UK’s energy independence.

We know that the cost of energy has also being ramping up and up and up - despite supporters of Net Zero having long insisted that their plan would cut bills.

When’s that happening then? Because the situation is now out of control.

Indeed one forecast is that the energy price cap could rise by 16% in January.

Meanwhile the Government have issued advice for a potential emergency in the future.

This is what the new guidance issued has said:

“Households are being encouraged to take a few simple steps to stay prepared if everyday services are temporarily disrupted, under updated advice published today.

“The advice is the first stage of a three-year campaign to help households across the UK feel better prepared for events such as severe weather, which can occasionally affect services including power, water, phones and the internet.

“The campaign focuses on straightforward things people can do in advance, including signing up to the Priority Services Register - a service that helps gas, water, and electricity companies identify customers that may need extra support in an emergency - and keep a small supply of non-perishable food and bottled water at home.”

This guidance seems to be in relation to weather, war and cyber attacks.

But the fact is that the UK’s damaging Net Zero experiment has had a dire impact.

Subscribe now

I think it is worth highlighting what independent energy consultant, Kathryn Porter, recently had to say:

“Fix the broken understanding of how the gas market works. Policymakers should recognise that British gas production is not sold on global markets at a global price. The GB gas market uses marginal pricing and additional domestic production displaces more expensive LNG imports, thereby reducing British gas prices. The report argues that claims that additional UK production cannot affect domestic prices are simply wrong.

Increase UK Continental Shelf gas production. Domestic gas should be preferred to imports wherever possible. UKCS gas is both cheaper and cleaner than imported LNG and provides a secure source of supply directly connected to the British gas network.

Reduce reliance on electricity imports. Britain is increasingly depending on electricity imports during periods of low domestic renewable generation. However, highly correlated weather patterns mean low wind generation in Britain can coincide with shortages elsewhere. The report warns that Norway and France cannot be assumed to provide unlimited electricity to their neighbours during periods of stress.

Model gas and electricity security together. The gas grid transports far more energy than the electricity network. Electrifying heating will take decades while gas-fired generation will remain critical to electricity security for years to come. The report argues that planning should recognise the interdependencies of gas and electricity to a greater extent.

Focus on cheap energy. Rapidly rising network costs are overtaking fuel costs as the main driver of energy bills. The report calls for tighter control of network expenditure and for the suspension of the Connect & Manage regime, arguing that consumers should not be required to fund expensive infrastructure whose output is frequently constrained or wasted.

Treat energy security as national security. The government should subject energy policy to an explicit national-security test, prioritising resilience, diversity of supply, sufficient domestic energy capacity and the preservation of strategically important industrial capability alongside affordability and sustainability.”

As to what comes next?

I fear unless we urgently change course away from Net Zero, we’re facing even higher bills and potential blackouts.

And the public are clear: a majority support more licences for oil and gas in the future. Just 24% are now opposed.

National security and cutting bills must now be the priority.

Reform have recently come under unprecedented attack from the establishment.

Subscribe now

That’s because policy proposals, such as shutting down the broken asylum system, represent a fundamental change.

Don’t expect the establishment to like it.

We have also seen some extremely brutal results lately - both in actual elections and polls - that have served as a severe warning.

The chances of Andy Burnham calling a snap election remain fairly high. The rumours and noise aren’t going away.

That means what we’ve seen recently is even more important in informing what could come next.

It sets up what will be a defining battle for the future of Britain.

And these results show what the reality of the situation now is. It really couldn’t be more serious than this.

Read more

The country needs radical change. I’m sure you agree with that.

Today we once again have further insight into what that would mean under a Reform Government.

The asylum system? Shut it down.

Subscribe now

To give just one example of how broken the system currently is, consider this.

It was revealed last year that the numbers of those who had h…

Read more

Frustration continues to grow across the country. And why wouldn’t it?

The Government are still refusing to defend our borders properly, and what is the end result?

Subscribe now

That daily illegal migrant boat crossings are continuing.

On 2nd October, 91 crossed on a single vessel.

The next day 164 came on a pair of boats.

Then on 4th October 418 crossed on 5 boats.

And on 5th October, a further 609 people were allowed to cross from France to England on 8 boats in a single day.

So the idea that this is under control in any way whatsoever is pure fantasy.

In fact around 20,000 more people have been allowed to cross this year.

That means well over 200,000 have crossed since 2018, thanks to the Government’s policy of providing a free taxi service to break into the country instead of stopping it.

Sadly, the situation is getting even worse as we witnessed in Gosport recently.

Read more

Well he’s certainly changed his tune, hasn’t he?

Subscribe now

It was only back in May that Andy Burnham insisted:

“I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU.

“I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.”

But fast forward a few month…

Read more

It is the biggest giveaway so far.

A new Prime Minister put into place without a proper mandate, inheriting a big parliamentary majority, already talking about his party’s offering at the next General Election.

Subscribe now

Yet Andy Burnham continues to insist that the next Westminster Election is still years away.

But then with the Labour Conference taking place and not wanting to overshadow it, he has to say that doesn’t he?

And so with Burnham already talking of a ten-year plan and what Labour will be pledging at the next General Election, a vote sooner rather than later feels increasingly inevitable.

Burnham told the BBC of his social care plans:

“I will put that plan to the public at a General Election.

“That will be where the plan will gets tested…I am prepared to put myself in that position recognising it may be difficult or unpopular with some.”

Does that seriously sound like a Prime Minister still years away from triggering the General Election?

As to what that election will look like, we’ve just seen some mega polls drop. Here’s how it’s looking.

Read more

The conservatives absolutely wiped out, with their credibility shot to pieces, losing support everywhere.

Yes, those of us in the UK can relate. It’s happening here too.

But what we’ve just witnessed in Germany is a complete wipeout.

Subscribe now

The governing conservatives, in a coalition nationally with the left-wing Social Democrats, just got zero seats in a major election. Zero. Nothing.

It shows what can happen when voters simply have had enough of conservative talk in office that fails to deliver.

Now Germany was bracing for the increasingly unpopular CDU conservatives to take an electoral beating.

But what we’ve witnessed was beyond what most people expected.

And now all hell is about to break loose.

This is what’s happening in Germany right now - and it’s pretty remarkable.

Read more

The playing field has just been levelled folks. Don’t expect Labour and the Tories to like it.

Reform’s attempt to end the two party Tory-Labour system requires many things.

A big part of that of course is resources.

Subscribe now

Now let’s put this into perspective.

Since January 2021, the Conservatives have raised £150m. Labour raised £12…

Read more

We cannot go on like this.

Despite having had years now to stop the illegal migrant boats, both Tory and Labour Governments have simply refused to do what is necessary.

Subscribe now

The public are getting increasingly sick and tired of this. We’ve now seen evidence of that in Portsmouth as well.

This system is fundamentally unfair and is costing the country a fortune.…

Read more

So Parliament returns and finally Andy Burnham will receive proper scrutiny.

The problem for Labour is, pollsters agree with me: the Burnham bounce is already over.

Subscribe now

And so before what is likely to be yet another Labour budget that delivers more damaging tax rises, Burnham’s party is already in a spot of bother.

Yes, Labour’s support has certainly recovered a bit since being led by the most unpopular PM ever in Keir Starmer.

But the boats keep coming. Energy prices are still rising. And high taxes are still crushing the economy.

It means that Burnham’s honeymoon period has come to an end pretty sharpish.

Indeed the vibes in Westminster are that the new PM could still call an early General Election as things are likely to get worse for Labour in the near future.

Graduate job vacancies have plunged by close to 50% in a year. Those being given the right to live in the UK just rose to a 16-year high. And all this at a time when nearly 1.3 million migrants are already now claiming Universal Credit.

The situation is fundamentally unfair, with workers and businesses in this country punished and squeezed to breaking point.

Yet it takes us to a point now where as Parliament returns, Labour have already fallen behind Reform again.

This is the reality of the political battle now raging.

Read more

Yes, even in London.

As Andy Burnham’s Labour go on with more radical changes they have no mandate for - the latest being Mayors given powers to overrule local Councils on major planning decisions - the country’s political shift continues.

Much of the lefty narrative is that everything is fine in London, that crime isn’t rampant and that the battle in the capital city is between Labour and the Greens.

Subscribe now

In fact the reality now is that most Londoners feel they are living in a state of decline, most don’t want Sadiq Khan to stand again for Mayor and Labour’s main challenger, even in London, is now Reform.

That doesn’t suit the lefty narrative of course - but this is what’s really happening. Even in London!

Read more

That didn’t last long.

It’s why I’ve thought Andy Burnham will either go early with a General Election - this year or possibly next year - or hang on until the bitter end.

Subscribe now

Nothing in the middle would surely make sense for Labour, as their endless tax hikes continue to destroy the economy. I still think they’re more likely to g…

Read more

22,239.

It is pretty remarkable that Nigel Farage just received more votes in Clacton than at the last General Election, despite the establishment running away from the by-election.

Subscribe now

Indeed the turnout still hit 44% even with the old legacy parties boycotting the vote completely.

Does anyone seriously think that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party would h…

Read more

The Burnham bounce, a Badenoch bounce?

Neither were on display at a series of local Council by-elections last week.

In fact the media narrative of what’s happening right now was completely at odds with how people actually voted.

Subscribe now

The idea that a huge Labour comeback or a Tory recovery are underway was not apparent at all across various actual votes we’ve just seen take place.

Already we’ve seen Reform overtake Burnham’s Labour in one national YouGov poll.

And these results suggest the media narrative of bounces and comebacks may be slightly premature.

Read more

Absolute madness.

At least 60,000 people crossed into the Spanish territory of Ceuta in a single day.

Subscribe now

This mayhem has shocked Europe - and comes following the left-wing Spanish Government’s decision to offer an amnesty to those in the country illegally.

That process has seen 1.2million people apply already.

But it also clearly sent out a message and the end result was complete bedlam.

The response across Europe was clear. France’s Jordan Bardella addressed the crisis by saying:

“By regularizing hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants, Spain's socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has opened the doors of Europe to all dangers.

“The result is clear: for several days now, thousands of migrants have been flooding into the Ceuta enclave. Tomorrow, they will be on our streets, against the will of the French people. The Government must urgently strengthen controls at the land border with Spain.

“In power, we will defend a reform of Schengen limiting free movement to European citizens only, and we will expel undocumented immigrants: it is time to send the signal that France and Europe no longer accept mass immigration.”

Whilst Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that:

“The Government has decided to temporarily suspend the free movement regime provided for by Schengen in maritime and air connections with Spain, reintroducing border controls.

”This is an extraordinary measure, adopted to safeguard national security and prevent possible repercussions for our Nation.

“The measure will be kept in force only for the time necessary, with particular attention to limiting any impact on summer tourist flows. In parallel, Italy is ready to support every European initiative to assist Spanish institutions as needed to restore full control of the Union's external borders and to address the ongoing situation with determination.

”Defending borders means defending the safety of citizens, combating irregular immigration, and striking at the criminal networks that traffic human beings.”

In terms of Britain, it is crazy that Andy Burnham became Prime Minister without real scrutiny as to any kind of plan on border security.

Immigration remains the number one issue in this country. As Ipsos recently confirmed:

“The July 2026 Ipsos Issues Index shows that immigration continues to be seen as the top issue facing Britain, with the economy in second place and the NHS and inflation both third.

“Fieldwork took place between 1 and 8 July, before the appointment of Andy Burnham as UK Prime Minister.

“Forty-three per cent of Britons identify immigration as a key concern, an increase of four percentage points since June and the highest percentage recorded this year, although 41% were also concerned in January, February and May.

“The economy remains second on 30%, although this represents a seven-percentage-point drop since June and is the lowest score for this issue since July 2025 (also 30%).”

So what’s next? Well there is now a proper debate underway as to how the madness of the illegal migrant boats can be stopped.

Read more

It was expected to happen. And now it has.

Andy Burnham, with absolutely no mandate to do so, has been busy making all sorts of expensive pledges.

Subscribe now

The end result has been a bounce for Labour in the polls.

This was entirely expected of course.

New Leaders and Prime Ministers often enjoy a honeymoon period of optimistic support from the public.

I doubt this will last too long for Burnham. Especially when his Government have to start explaining how they’re actually going to fund any of their plans.

Further tax rises appear inevitable. That would be appalling given the extent to which workers and businesses are already being punished.

Our economy increasingly squeezes those who work hard to fund an exploding welfare bill, foreign aid splurges and an illegal migrant accommodation industry.

By the way, just to give you an idea as to how little Labour have actually done to stop the boats, here’s what has happened in recent days.

On 22nd July, 172 people crossed from France to England on 3 boats.

The next day saw 366 cross on another 3 boats. You’ll notice these boats aren’t so small anymore.

On 24th July, 103 more people crossed on a pair of boats.

And on 25th July, another 240 came across on five boats.

So this crisis hasn’t been stopped. Not even close. The Government simply aren’t willing to do what is necessary to stop it.

And yet Burnham’s early honeymoon bounce in the polls is undeniable.

Here’s what’s happened - and why an early election could still well be on, no matter what the Prime Minister currently says.

Read more

Hear me out.

Yes I know lots of you will be thinking that Andy Burnham will now inevitably try and cling on until the last possible moment.

Of course a 2029 General Election could well be what we get.

But I still think there is a good chance that Burnham will go early. And there’s increasing evidence pointing to this possibility.

Remember, Burnham came i…

Read more

It is a shocking legacy.

Keir Starmer proved that Labour had no real plan for power.

Despite commanding a huge parliamentary majority, Labour chose to continue with the Tory legacy.

Subscribe now

The illegal migrant boats have kept coming. Net Zero has continued to deliver higher energy prices. Workers and businesses have been punished more and more with even higher tax…

Read more